‘Good growth in every postcode’? Not in Greater Manchester
Greater Manchester’s relative growth success story has not translated into a boom in earnings or income for people in outer boroughs, according to a new report.
Oxford Economics research has suggested that “exceptional economic growth” has not translated into higher earnings or income growth around the region.
Economists said high levels of inactivity and the lack of gains on productivity in places away from Manchester’s city centre has held back households.
The report examines the wider narrative playing out ahead of Andy Burnham’s entry into Number 10, with the former Greater Manchester mayor taking credit for the growth gains experienced over recent years.
He has also used high growth figures to trumpet his calls for further devolution while promising “good growth in every postcode”.
While average disposable income growth in the city has outperformed the national average by around 0.6 percentage points between 2008 and 2025, growth in Greater Manchester boroughs Salford and Bolton has lagged 0.7 percentage points behind the country’s trend rates.
Bury, Oldham and Wigan have also struggled to keep up with growth experiences in areas such as Manchester, Trafford and Tameside.
Economists said these regions had been particularly affected by a sharp rise in people who are out of work and are economically inactive, with long-term sickness up by almost 25 per cent across the whole of the city region.
Manchester city’s growth is a ‘devolution success story’
The report also suggested that some poor transport connections and a “relatively small” labour market meant that Manchester’s growth has failed to spill over to other areas across the region.
The report said a sluggish level of income growth outside the centre suggests urban areas “remain too weak, too small, and too poorly connected to spread
growth across the entire region”.
Economists at Oxford Economics also suggested there were questions about the city’s productivity growth, which “has been weak by historical standards”.
While the city enjoyed an average 2.1 per cent rise in annual productivity growth between 1991 and 2007, its trend had come to an average of 1.2 per cent each year since the financial crisis. This was higher than levels seen across the UK and in London.
Another paper by the consultancy also raised concerns about the data underpinning Manchester’s growth rates given the Office for National Statistics has struggled to publish reliable labour market figures.
By contrast, the Centre for Cities, a think tank favoured by Burnham, said Manchester’s city centre has improved due to a better focus on buses through the private sector-operated Bee Network buses and tram lines.
It labelled new transport frameworks a “devolution success story”.
It also pointed out that wages in the city were higher than the national average though unemployment between 2024 and 2025 was also above the UK’s rate.