Government’s analysis of Brexit no help to MPs, Treasury committee finds

The government’s own analysis of Brexit is effectively meaningless as it doesn’t scrutinise the implications of the backstop or the most likely trade deal outcomes, according to MPs.

The Treasury Select Committee claim analysis of the withdrawal agreement and political declaration secured by Theresa May last month should not be used by MPs to help them reach a decision on whether to back the deal.

The analysis showed economic growth would take a hit in every Brexit scenario, with the so-called Chequers plan for frictionless trade in goods delivering the smallest knock to the economy.

However, the Chequers plan is just one of a range of outcomes – and the EU has already rejected it for splitting the Single Market.

Treasury Committee chair Nicky Morgan said despite the committee being made up of strong remainers and committed Brexiters, the criticism of the government’s analysis was unanimously agreed.

She said: “The Committee is disappointed that the Government has modelled its White Paper, which represents the most optimistic reading of the Political Declaration, rather than a more realistic scenario.

“The Committee is also disappointed that the Treasury has not analysed the backstop and fails to include short-term analysis of any of the scenarios, including impacts on public finances and on regional and sectoral job losses or gains.

“Despite this, the Committee hopes that all MPs will read our report to draw from the range of scenarios modelled in order to assess the economic impact of the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration.”

The committee was more positive about analysis provided by the Bank of England, and flagged up the bank’s governor had told MPs that members of his organisation are “are already sleeping soundly at night, because the core of the financial sector is in the position that it needs to be in for the tough scenario.”

The report comes a day after May pulled a parliamentary vote on the Brexit deal in the face of a large-scale rebellion from her party.

On Tuesday, she set off for talks with European leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, to get further assurances the backstop arrangement – which would leave the UK tied in the EU's customs union – would only be temporary.

No date has been given for when MPs will get to vote on the deal, but Downing Street today said it would be held before January 21.