Has Fifa wildly overestimated the value of Club World Cup media rights?
Was Fifa too hasty in rejecting Apple’s reported $1bn (£760m) offer for media rights to next summer’s inaugural beefed-up Club World Cup?
That is a question football’s governing body may have to ask itself as time ticks down towards the new 32-team tournament in the US next summer.
With only eight months to go until kick-off, Fifa is yet to announce either a single sponsor to help fund Gianni Infantino’s pet project or a broadcaster that has signed up to show it.
Rumours that Infantino may seek to leverage his relationship with Saudi Arabia to plug either one or both of those gaps, meanwhile, refuse to go away.
They are the latest wrinkles in a project that was initially resisted by national federations, delayed by Covid-19 and then opposed by European clubs, the most important in the game.
Teams have since been brought on side through an agreement with the European Club Association, but some leagues and player unions remain fiercely opposed – to the extent that they will formally file a complaint to the European Union on Monday.
Undaunted, Fifa is pushing ahead with the Club World Cup and last month revealed both the branding for the tournament and a list of 12 venues which will stage matches.
But the turbulent build-up has not helped to attract commercial and media partners, or at least not those brandishing the sort of offers for which Infantino had hoped.
Fifa reportedly believed it could fetch $4bn (£3bn) from the sale of media rights to the Club World Cup, essentially an attempt to grab a slice of the lucrative club football pie.
Having entered the sport with a global deal for Major League Soccer on the back of Lionel Messi’s move to Inter Miami last year, Apple showed interest in the Club World Cup.
But talks broke down earlier this year, with the Silicon Valley tech giant and Fifa seemingly still miles apart in their valuation of the broadcast rights.
Soon after, reports emerged that Fifa had hired UBS to raise up to $2bn (£1.5bn) in investment for its streaming platform, Fifa+, opening the possibility that it could carry the tournament.
Analysis by independent consultancy Football Benchmark this week, however, highlights how optimistic Infantino’s initial projections were.
A total media rights value of £3bn is more than the £2.2bn Fifa generated from the Qatar 2022 World Cup or the £2.66bn that Uefa banks annually from the new-look Champions League.
It is also more on a per-game basis, with £3bn over 63 fixtures working out at almost £48m a match. The World Cup is roughly £35m per game, and the Champions League £14m a pop.
What’s more, the market is generally declining on a per-game rate, with even the Premier League having to sell ever more matches to keep the value of its rights buoyant.
Industry watchers believe that a price of £15m to £20m, making up a package worth around £1bn in total, is a more realistic target for Fifa – and even then, it may take time.
“Considering comparable events, the nature of the competition, the calibre of the participating clubs and the scale of potential markets, the Club World Cup could eventually reach that valuation,” said Andrea Sartori, founder and CEO of Football Benchmark.
Infantino could yet pull a rabbit out of a hat. Perhaps Saudi Arabia will provide investment for Fifa+, or maybe its reported interest in buying a minority stake in Dazn could see the sports streaming service make a play for the rights.
If not, Apple’s offer could begin to look more appealing with every passing day.