Has Sadiq Khan laid the groundwork for Mayor Zack Polanski?
According to a recent YouGov survey, just under 20 per cent of Brits think London is in a bad state and worse than the rest of the country. Only 14 per cent of actual Londoners share that view, while 22 per cent of voters in the North think it’s definitely the case. Just under 20 per cent of people think London’s in a bad way but that it’s no worse than the rest of the country.
More than 40 per cent of people in Scotland and Wales express no view on the matter. Pollsters don’t take account of respondents who think “don’t know, don’t care” but that’s the sense one gets from our Celtic cousins.
As for Londoners themselves, we’ve conducted our own poll of the capital’s residents alongside our regular Freshwater Strategy monthly survey of UK voters. The results are interesting.
While nationally, 56 per cent of people expect the economy to worsen in the year ahead, the figure falls to 45 per cent in London. And while 44 per cent of Brits say they expect their own finances to deteriorate, the figure is 10 per cent lower in London. Workers in the capital have the highest median gross salary of any UK region at around £50,000, compared to £34,000 in the North East and the UK median of £39,000.
However, London also has the highest unemployment rate in the UK at 6.5 per cent, compared to a UK-wide rate of 5 per cent. The nation’s capital is of course extraordinarily diverse with huge inequalities within boroughs and even within buildings.
London ‘heading in the wrong direction’
So what unites us? Well, according to our polling 56 per cent say London is heading in the wrong direction, with 34 per cent saying the city’s on the right track. The cost of living is cited as the top priority issue with economic growth coming second followed by improving health and social care. Reducing immigration comes fourth. Nationally, immigration is the second most important issue after the cost of living.
Across the country, Labour is on 19 per cent in the polls, behind Reform and the Tories. In London, Starmer’s party polls on top (34 per cent) with the Tories in second (28 per cent) and Reform third on 13 per cent. Does this automatically mean good news for Sadiq Khan? Not particularly, as 60 per cent of London voters say he shouldn’t run again.
Who might capture Londoners’ interest at the ballot box? We offered the name of one party leader and 40 per cent said they’d consider voting for him as mayor: Green leader, Zack Polanski. Reassuringly, 39 per cent said they wouldn’t consider it, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run and I wouldn’t be surprised if he won.
Our polling reveals that a majority of younger Londoners have considered leaving the capital due to the cost of living (prime territory for magic-money-tree Polanski) but it also shows that Khan’s green policies are popular. The introduction of more cycle lanes, Low Traffic Neighbourhoods, the Ultra Low Emission Zone and 20 mile per hour zones are all deemed to have improved living and working in London – and all four measures enjoy a net positive favourability score.
I don’t want to talk Polanski into running, but if he did he might find that Khan has laid the groundwork for him.