Horse Racing Betting Tips: Forecast rain can see Ottokar crowned King in Chester Vase
TRAINER Aidan O’Brien had a weekend to remember when taking both the 1000 and 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and will fancy his chances of landing this afternoon’s MBNA Chester Vase (3.35pm) for an eighth time in 11 years.
However, the question is which of his three entries holds the best chance as they all seem suited by very different conditions.
The master of Ballydoyle has teamed up with Ryan Moore to win six of the last eight renewals and the pair unite again with favourite NORWAY.
The son of Galileo had plenty of experience as a juvenile, with the pick of his form being a win in the Listed Zetland Stakes at Newmarket last October.
He went on to finish a fair fourth in the Group One Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his final start of the campaign which may have come just a little too close to those Newmarket exertions.
Norway looks to be his stable’s leading contender for this and has obviously done well over the winter to be the choice of Moore.
However, the one uncertainty with him is how he will handle the rain-softened ground should the poor forecast materialise.
Predicted rainfall totals seem to change on an almost hourly basis, but one thing for certain is that if the thick end of the currently projected 10mm arrives this morning, the ground will ride soft.
Hopefully the rain will not inconvenience him but we do know that it will suit his stablemate Sir Dragonet, who only made his racecourse debut at Tipperary a couple of weeks ago.
The well-bred colt handled soft ground that day and ran out a convincing winner over this sort of trip.
Jockey Wayne Lordan’s confidence will be sky-high after winning Sunday’s 1000 Guineas and he could upset a few here aboard this son of Camelot.
The pair have plenty to find on the form book but looks potentially overpriced at around 8/1 should conditions drastically deteriorate.
Gentil Bellini, the other O’Brien runner, won his Cork maiden in convincing fashion last month and looks another leading contender if the rain stays away.
He has done all his racing on a sounder surface, so his ability to handle soft ground is a big unknown.
The one horse who will be totally at home in the conditions, though, is the Charlie Fellowes-trained KING OTTOKAR who looked well above average at Newbury on his reappearance last month.
The son of Investec Derby winner Motivator looked a chip off the old block when galloping his rivals into the ground that day, relishing the rain-softened surface.
He burst some big reputations there, including the likes of Space Blues, Turgenev and Headman, and even though the form may not have been franked so far, it was a visually taking performance.
There is likely to be more to come and every drop of rain that falls will only aid his chances, meaning the 10/3 currently available should be snapped up.
My selection had Andrew Balding’s Dashing Willoughby behind him that day and this son of Nathaniel looks another likely to be suited by the step up in trip.
The same can also be said for Kaloor, who ran on late behind King Ottokar and Dashing Willoughby at Newbury.
That was only the second start of his life and it would be dangerous to totally dismiss him from the equation with the extra two furlongs likely to be right up his street.
Martyn Meade’s TECHNICIAN enjoyed the step up to this distance when winning at Leicester on his seasonal reappearance and then stepped up from that to finish second to Bangkok in the Sandown Classic Trial.
He may well have won that day if he hadn’t been hemmed in and the step back up in trip is another big plus.
Whether he would want conditions to get really testing is unlikely, but he looks a colt improving with every start and is hard to leave out of the equation.
Arthur Kitt can be forgiven for his failure at Epsom last month as his head hit the ground on exiting the stalls.
Whether he will be seen at his best over this trip on rain-softened ground is open to question, but he has plenty of class.
BILL ESDAILE’S CHESTER VASE 1-2-3
1 KING OTTOKAR
2 NORWAY
3 TECHNICIAN