Horse Racing Betting Tips: Rain the biggest threat to Mogul’s Vertem Futurity Trophy challenge
TRAINER Aidan O’Brien has won the last two renewals of tomorrow’s Vertem Futurity Trophy (3.25pm) at Doncaster and was responsible for an astonishing 11 of the 12 entries at Monday’s five-day declaration stage.
The master of Ballydoyle has whittled that challenge down to just five now with only Andrew Balding’s Kameko standing his ground against the Ballydoyle battalion.
All eyes will be on the weather as there is plenty of rain set to hit Doncaster in the build-up to the last Group One of the UK Flat season.
On paper, Mogul looks the pick of the O’Brien quintet having landed a Group Two at Leopardstown in eye-catching fashion last time.
The son of Galileo leapt to the top of the betting for next year’s Investec Derby on the back of that performance and appears to be held in high regard.
Whether he deserves to be as short as 1/2 with Coral on the back of that performance is open to debate on ground that will certainly be the softest he has faced.
These classy Galileo’s tend to be versatile in all conditions, but I would have my concerns if things got really bad and it would be no surprise if O’Brien opted to withdraw him.
I note that Mogul’s dam Shastye disappointed the only time she raced on a soft surface, so all this rain has to be a worry.
His class may well see him through, but at the prices I am prepared to take him on with stablemate INNISFREE who relished heavy ground in the Beresford Stakes at the Curragh last time.
He travelled well and showed plenty of bravery to repel all challengers in tough conditions and looks the call at 7/2 with Ladbrokes.
Kameko flies the flag for the home team and was only just denied in the Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket last time.
That was just his third start and he is likely to improve once again. However, the big worry for him is the weather and conditions may well blunt his speed.
Looking at the rest of the Doncaster card, the history books suggest it is best to side with a three-year-old in the staying handicap (2.55pm).
The Roger Varian-trained Tammooz will be a warm order as he looks to land the hat-trick, although he has to defy another 5lb rise.
I’d rather take him on with Ralph Beckett’s FUTURE INVESTMENT who still looks leniently treated off a mark of just 89.
He handled bad ground at York last time where the 1m6f trip seemed to stretch him and he finished fourth to potential Group horse Hamish.
The drop back in trip here looks ideal and he’ll go well for a stable in red-hot form.
Finally, there are plenty of old favourites lining up in the Doncaster Handicap (4.00pm), with Danzeno and Tarboosh both solid performers at the top of the weights.
However, I’m keen to take a chance on two that both ran in the same York race a fortnight ago.
ORVAR flew home to finish third behind Moss Gill and proved he goes well in soft ground at Doncaster by winning here in August.
He’s only 4lbs higher now, arrives here in good form and should run a big race at around 8/1.
At a much bigger price, I’m going to have a speculative each-way play on SAVALAS at around 25/1.
He led them a merry dance before eventually finishing fifth in that race at York and has been dropped another pound to a mark of 86.
When you consider he was running off a stone higher this time 12 months ago, he is definitely well-handicapped.
The other big danger lurking at the bottom of the weights is Fairy Stories.
She has valuable 5lb claimer Sean Davis in the saddle and handles cut in the ground.
POINTERS SATURDAY
Future Investment e/w 2.55pm Doncaster
Innisfree 3.25pm Doncaster
Orvar e/w 4.00pm Doncaster
Savalas e/w 4.00pm Doncaster