Horse Racing Betting Tips: You’re not being a chicken backing Shish in the opener
RELIEF is what most of us will be feeling when the famous roar greets the start of the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at 1.30pm this afternoon.
Obviously the devastating effects of the coronavirus around the world are far more important than sport, but I’m sure every racing fan is absolutely delighted that the Cheltenham Festival has been given the green light.
The weather has also been a major issue of late, with relentless rain around the country causing a number of abandonments.
Cheltenham drains incredibly well, though, and with the forecast improving throughout the week, it looks unlikely that conditions will be heavy.
It is somewhat surprising that Nicky Henderson has only won the curtain raiser three times in his career, especially as he has seven Champion Hurdles to his name.
His last success in the Supreme was Altior in 2016, but I have a feeling he is going to unleash another future star in SHISHKIN today.
The son of Sholokhov made an inauspicious start to his hurdling career when falling at the second flight at Newbury in December.
However, he went back to the Berkshire course the following month and produced an electrifying turn of foot over the last to win by 11 lengths on heavy ground.
It is difficult to know how strong that form is because the second was joint favourite for last weekend’s abandoned Paddy Power Imperial Cup.
Not many horses show that kind of speed on heavy ground, though, so it was a very impressive performance.
He then went to Huntingdon and was just as dominant when winning the Sidney Banks.
Henderson is a brilliant trainer who knows when he has a good one, and this horse is worth backing at 4/1 with Paddy Power who are offering £10 back as a free bet if your horse finishes second, third or fourth in every race on day one.
Shishkin is owned by last year’s Gold Cup-winning owner Joe Donnelly and the Irish businessman holds an enviable hand in this with other leading fancy Asterion Forlonge also sporting his yellow and black chequered silks.
Trained by Willie Mullins, who has won this race a record seven times, the dashing grey is three from three over hurdles, including a comfortable Grade One success at the Dublin Racing Festival last month.
Paul Townend is likely to adopt similar front-running tactics to those successfully pulled off by Ruby Walsh on Klassical Dream in this race 12 months ago; it’s just whether the horse can live with Shishkin’s speed.
The more rain that falls the better for Fiddlerontheroof who was so impressive in the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown on heavy ground.
Davy Russell rides Gordon Elliott’s Abacadabras, whose only defeat over hurdles came at the hands of Envoi Allen in the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse in December.
Then there’s Shishkin’s stablemate Chantry House, who is two from two over hurdles, so on paper it does look a strong renewal.
The Ultima Handicap Chase (2.50pm) is always one of the most difficult puzzles to solve all week.
Kim Bailey’s Vinndication looks certain to go off favourite and it’s easy to see why after he sluiced up in a valuable handicap at Ascot in early November.
However, I’m concerned that he has only ever raced once left-handed, while it is not easy to win a handicap off a mark of 159.
Kildisart and Discorama are both respected, but the one who could be very well-handicapped is THE CONDITIONAL for David Bridgwater and Brendan Powell.
He stayed on well to win a handicap over course and distance in October, before finishing second to De Rasher Counter in the Ladbrokes Trophy.
His stamina gave way late on in the Classic Chase at Warwick last time and with just 10st 6lbs on his back, he is a decent each-way bet at 15/2 with Paddy Power who are offering six places in this race.
POINTERS
Shishkin 1.30pm Cheltenham
The Conditional e/w 2.50pm Cheltenham