House prices edge higher amid Budget speculation
UK house prices rose for a second consecutive month, as buyers remained resilient amid growing tax rise speculation in the upcoming Autumn Budget.
The average value of a house increased 0.3 per cent to £272,226 in October, according to Nationwide’s latest housing pricing index.
House prices were 2.4 per cent higher than last year, following growth of 2.2 per cent in September.
Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide, said: “Against a backdrop of subdued consumer confidence and signs of weakening in the labour market, this performance indicates resilience, especially since mortgage are more than double the level they were before Covid struck and house prices are close to all time highs.”
Outlook for house prices
The building society also expects housing affordability to likely “improve modestly” if wage growth continues to outstrip house price growth.
Gardner said: “Borrowing costs are also likely to moderate a little further if Bank Rate is lowered again in the coming quarters.”
“This should support buyer demand, especially since household balance sheets are strong.”
Karen Noye, mortgage expert at Quilter, said: “The message from October is one of quiet resilience…while there is little sign of a rapid rebound the gradual improvement in sentiment shows buyers are beginning to feel the worst may be behind them.”
Property tax uncertainty
However, some areas of the market are feeling the pressure caused by increasing speculation around property taxes as the November Budget creeps closer.
Rumours surrounding a ‘mansion tax’ have grown louder, with the Chancellor understood to be looking at an annual one per cent charge on the amount a property’s value exceeds £2m.
Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at estate agent Knight Frank, said: “A two-speed market has been created as the Budget approaches, with prices falling in higher-value areas due to uncertainty over property taxes.
“The risk is that momentum is gradually sapped from the wider market after 26 November.”
Noye said: “If the Chancellor uses the Budget to target wealthier homeowners or property investors, that could stall activity at the top of the market, which often sets the tone for the rest of the housing ladder.”