How much do forecasters think the UK will grow in 2024?
Looking back, 2023 was a year in which economic forecasters were proved wrong about the UK economy time and time again.
At the beginning of the year, most forecasters were predicting that the UK would fall into a recession. But the UK economy has remained far more resilient than experts expected, leaving many with a red face.
Inflation too has proved far more persistent than predicted by experts at the Bank of England and Office for Budget Responsibility. This means interest rates will likely have to remain higher for longer than markets expected this time last year, which in turn will hit GDP.
Going into the new year, forecasters have a healthy spread of opinions on the extent to which the UK will grow next year.
The differences relate to how long interest rates will be left at their current level, the extent of the impact still to be felt and, crucially, how consumers will respond.
While a recession now looks relatively unlikely, the overriding picture is one of sluggishness.
Here’s a sample of how much some of the top economic forecasters think the UK might grow next year.
| Official organisations | |
| Bank of England | 0.1 |
| IMF | 0.6 |
| OBR | 0.7 |
| OECD | 0.7 |
| Independent forecasters | |
| KPMG | 0.5 |
| EY | 0.6 |
| Pantheon Macroeconomics | 0.8 |
| Capital Economics | 0.1 |
| NIESR | 0.5 |
| Banks | |
| Goldman Sachs | 0.6 |
| JP Morgan | 0.2 |
| Deutsche Bank | 0.3 |
| Morgan Stanley | 0.5 |