Immigration to lift UK’s population to 70m by mid-2026
Immigration is set to lift the UK’s population to 70m by mid-2026, according to new projections released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) today.
The projections show that over the 15 years from mid-2021 to mid-2036, the UK’s population will grow by 6.6m – nearly 10 per cent – taking the UK’s population to 73.7m.
The vast majority of this increase will reflect international migration, with the ONS projecting immigration would add 6.1m to the population. The remaining 541,000 will result from their being more births than deaths during that 15-year period.
James Robards at the ONS said: “Our projections – which use assumptions based on current and past trends – are not predictions. If migration comes down, then so will our assumptions for use in future projections.”
A high level of immigration helps to offset the UK’s demographic challenges. By mid-2035, the projections suggest there will be more deaths than births meaning the UK’s population would be declining without immigration.
The population will also be older. The ONS estimated that over the next 15 years, the size of the UK population aged 85 years and over will grow by 1m.
Recent forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) have revealed the pressures that an ageing population will put on the UK’s finances.
Currently there are 30 people of pension age for every 100 people working, but by 2067, this will be 38. Net debt under that scenario hits 280 per cent by GDP by 2067.
The Conservatives have made reducing immigration a key pledge ahead of this year’s election.
In an announcement today, the Home Office confirmed new restrictions on overseas workers, including significantly hiking the wage threshold for foreign workers.
Starting from 4 April, those arriving on a Skilled Worker visa will need £38,700, up from £26,200 previously. Home Secretary James Cleverly said: “Migration is too high and we must get back to sustainable levels.”