Interest rates unlikely to rise in 2020, says ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann
A European Central Bank policymaker has said it is unlikely interest rates will be lifted back into positive territory next year.
Robert Holzmann cited Brexit as being likely to cause renewed concern toward the end of 2020.
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The governing council voted to maintain the deposit rate at the historic low of -0.5 per cent in line with market expectations in President Christine Lagarde’s first monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt earlier this month.
“I do not expect a turnaround to a positive interest rate environment next year,” Holzmann said in a statement on Friday.
The head of Austria’s central bank said concern would grow next December toward the end of the UK’s transition period for leaving the European Union.
The UK is currently on course to leave the EU on 31 January with Boris Johnson saying a transition period up until the end of 2020 was non-negotiable, regardless of whether trade and other deals are agreed.
“There is little time for negotiations on future relations, and the outcome of the negotiations is open,” Holzmann said.
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The ECB has reiterated earlier this month that rates will stay at the current level or lower until the inflation outlook is close to but below 0.2 per cent, with underlying inflation consistently convergent with that level.
Its annual forecast for real GDP growth for the euro area was 1.2 per cent in 2019, an upward revision of 0.1 per cent, but down 0.1 per cent for 2020 compared with September’s projections at 1.1 per cent.
The forecast for 2021 and 2022 is currently 1.4 per cent.