Contradiction at the heart of National Security Strategy
The situation in the Middle East reminds us that these are volatile times and as the war in Ukraine grinds on, an unpredictable US President heads to the Hague for a crucial Nato summit where the security of Europe is on the table.
At home, the government has published its National Security Strategy which concludes that in an era of “radical uncertainty” the UK must actively prepare to fight a war on British soil.
Coincidentally, I began listening yesterday to a brilliant and chilling podcast by Sky News and Tortoise; War Game brings together senior politicians and former military top brass to play out a potential UK response to direct Russian aggression. It’s sobering stuff.
But I turned to the National Security Strategy yesterday in order to search it for one particular word; China. It can be found just 20 times among the nearly 16,000 words that make up this crucial document.
The Labour manifesto promised a comprehensive ‘audit’ of the UK’s entire relationship with China. It pledged to lay bare the good, the bad and the ugly, but earlier this year – with Labour now in government and subject to Foreign Office orthodoxy – this audit was quietly downgraded and rolled into the National Security Strategy.
Epic scale of Chinese spying in the UK
The document identifies China as “a major power” exerting substantial influence around the world, and it touches on Chinese competition in areas such as the military, tech, AI and industry. It acknowledges that “China’s espionage, interference in our democracy and the undermining of our economic security have increased in recent years” and sets out a number of steps the UK will take to meet this threat. This includes more money for our spy agencies and a renewed ‘whole of government’ approach to better understanding China and its agenda.
But at the same time, the document confidently declares that the government “will seek a trade and investment relationship that supports secure and resilient growth and boosts the UK economy.” And of course, there’s the obligatory mention of climate change and the importance of partnerships.
Ultimately, China is described as a challenge (and an opportunity) rather than a threat. This is despite the head of MI5 referring recently to the “epic scale” of hostile Chinese espionage in (and against) the UK. And soon China will have a state of the art base from which to conduct this activity, in the form of a new controversial mega-embassy, to be built on the edge of the City and soon to get the green light from Angela Rayner, to the consternation of our allies.
As I’ve said before, this government’s China policy is based on a contradiction. The National Security Strategy goes some way to recognising reality (and of course, they can’t do so fully in public) but it’s clear the government prefers an approach based on accommodating and tolerating China’s hostility in the hope of receiving some crumbs from its table.