Labour’s London wall has fallen. What now?
Labour’s London stronghold has finally broken. But what does that mean for the city and the next general election, asks John Dickie
For years, Westminster has been obsessed with walls. First, the Labour red wall in the north that turned blue in 2019. Then the blue wall of traditionally safe Conservative seats in the south that swung red or yellow in 2024.
Now, after the local elections, politicians of every stripe should be paying attention to a different political frontier: the London wall.
The capital today no longer looks like a Labour fortress. Last week, Labour held control of over two thirds of the London boroughs, 21 of the 32. At last year’s general election, the party won every inner London seat – bar independent Jeremy Corbyn taking Islington North – and 59 out of 75 in the city as a whole.
Following the local elections, Labour remains the largest party in the city but it has lost ground on multiple fronts: the Greens advancing in inner London, Reform gaining traction in outer boroughs, Lib Dems consolidating in their traditional South West London strongholds, and the Conservatives winning back councils where many had written them off. And independent candidates and local parties have also made gains.
The reality of fragmented councils
In the short term, this means a patchwork of outcomes across London’s town halls: new governing groups in some councils, fragile coalitions in others and leadership changes even where overall control has been retained but internal political balances have shifted. Inevitably, some administrations that campaigned in poetry will swiftly discover they must govern in prose.
This will create considerable uncertainty for business. Planning decisions will become more fraught with fragmented planning committees split between pragmatists who want development that provides some affordable housing and absolutists whose demands risk blocking schemes altogether – delivering, in practice, 100 per cent of nothing. Decisions over the core services businesses rely on – keeping the streets clean, safe and secure – will be in the mix with other political promises. And it will be harder to make a joined-up borough case to City Hall or central government: reconciling Reform and Green leaders on net zero, to take but one example, will be tricky to say the least.
The divergence between borough politics and the Labour-run City Hall may become one of the defining features of the coming years. One way forward that might appeal to both the Mayor of London and the government will be more powers to unblock strategic priorities, like housing. That will be uncomfortable for some borough leaders but it is hard to see ministers making tangible progress on delivery in this pluralist political landscape without City Hall being given the tools – and accountability – it needs. Other metro mayors around the country will face similar challenges, perhaps even more acutely than London, given they rely on consensus within combined authority boards.
How will Labour’s London losses affect the next general election?
But what does this mean for the London wall at the next general election? Turnout will be much higher, voters often behave differently in the locals, and the next general election is years away. Even so, these results suggest it is all to play for in London.
With the shift to five or six-party politics, many races across the city and country were won by wafer-thin margins and historically low vote shares. If this fragmentation continues, how vote share translates into seats won will look like a crap shoot. The result could be a working majority on roughly a quarter of the vote – or a fractured parliament leading to a fragile coalition.
So, London can no longer be taken for granted politically. For years, the parties often treated the capital as electorally banked with campaigning and policymaking directed elsewhere. London almost became a dirty word in some circles.
If the capital is once again contested territory, the government, and other parties, will have stronger incentives to support policies – on transport, housing, skills and more – that can unlock the full potential of London. This would be good for the whole country: London, after all, represents a quarter of the UK economy, makes a substantial net contribution to the public finances and, as Rachel Reeves recently put it, is our services superpower.
London is now a key battleground
The significance of these elections goes beyond who runs which town hall. London is moving from being an assumed political constant to becoming one of the key electoral battlegrounds and – potentially – a sign of things to come on the national stage.
The splashes of turquoise and green on London’s political wall today make for a more complex and unpredictable environment for politicians, businesses and voters. Westminster should pay attention.
John Dickie is chief executive of BusinessLDN and the former deputy leader of Camden Council