Lifting restrictions should be spaced out to avoid third wave, senior doctors say
The easing of restrictions should be spaced out to keep the levels of transmissions down and avoid a third wave in the UK, according to senior doctors today.
“If we are intending to keep the levels of transmission down because that is the fundamental risk we have, then it would make sense to space the lifting of restrictions in a way that more of the vulnerable populations at least get the two doses first,” Dr Sakhthi Karananithi told BBC’s Today Programme this morning.
“It really depends on what the intent is and what the end state we want to achieve with these restrictions, and to me, that appears to be to keep the transmissions as low as possible.”
As of today, 25.5m people have had their second jab. While last Sunday marked 93.2 per cent of the clinically vulnerable population having at least one dose, according to NHS data.
Professor James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, added that “If we see a big spike in hospital admissions then I suspect the government may continue with the easing of restrictions but I think there will be some residual restrictions.”
Restrictions roadmap
Scientists and doctors have been questioning the UK’s restrictions roadmap which would see most Covid-19 rules eased on 21 June.
However, a surge in cases in Blackburn with Darwen, Bolton and Rosendale in the northwest of the UK has prompted concerns of the lifting of restrictions.
“What we’re facing in Lancashire is a combination of three different problem sets, one is we have a highly transmissible virus to start with, second we do have a largely susceptible population still either not fully vaccinated or not vaccinated at all, or meeting in poorly ventilated settings,” Dr Karananithi added.
“The third problem set is the vulnerable socioeconomic alignment, that some areas haven’t really been prioritised for faster protection.”
Professor Naismith agreed that the government waiting until 14 June to decide on the easing of restrictions was a good idea.
“We will know by that date if this is a truly serious problem. The cases will increase of the Indian variant, that’s now inevitable. The real question is what it does the healthcare numbers,” he said.
Hotspots
The North West of England has hosted hotspots since the pandemic began, with some areas not being as prioritised as they should have been, according to Dr Karananithi.
“If you look at the map of hotspots across the country, there are some areas that repeatedly have cropped up in the past…northwest in particular.”
The government needs to bolster its testing to disrupt transmission, Dr Karananithi said.
Upping vaccinations will also be key, Professor Naismith continued: “The more double vaccinated people we have the less fuel there is for any new strain of the virus to burn with.”
Naismith also questioned the efficacy of the UK’s track and trace system which has seen criticism since it was introduced.
“With numbers as low as they were, with a reasonable amount of lockdown, if track and trace was ever going to work and make a difference it would have been this time and it doesn’t appear to have made any difference at all.”
“It doesn’t work, I don’t know why. But the evidence is there for everyone to see.”