Markets await March inflation data for new signals on interest rate cuts
A flurry of UK economic data set to be published this week is set to provide an update on the health of the UK economy and give greater insight into when the Bank of England might start to cut interest rates.
Labour market figures are due to be released on Tuesday, where analysts at Investec expect the unemployment rate to nudge up to 4.0 per cent in the three months to February and for the various measures of earnings growth to subside.
However, the analysts warned there are still huge questions about the reliability of the labour market numbers, in particular those from the Labour Force Survey such as unemployment.
Andrew Bailey, who is speaking on the same day, might give markets a clearer steer on what this data means for interest rate cuts.
On Wednesday the Office for National Statistics will publish inflation data for March. Investec analysts expect the headline rate to ease to 3.2 per cent from 3.4 per cent, and for the ‘core’ measure to drop to 4.3 per cent from 4.5 per cent.
S&P may make a statement on Friday on its UK sovereign rating, which currently stands at ‘AA’ with a ‘stable’ outlook.
A series of corporate updates are also likely to provide further clarity on the state of the UK’s labour market as recruitment agencies, PageGroup, Robert Walters and Hays are all set to deliver their latest quarterly updates this week.
Robert Walters, which is often viewed as a bellweather for the UK jobs market, put out a profit warning last June, and earnings estimates there have continued to leak lower. Sales are forecast to come down nine per cent to £971m, AJ Bell said in a note.
Elsewhere, Asos is expected to post another slump in sales on Wednesday as it works to turnaround its fortunes. Shares in Asos are now around 50 per cent lower than the same period last year.