May will need Brussels to help her sell the deal

Brexit has shattered the normal rules of politics.

Theresa May has suffered twenty-two ministerial resignations since becoming Prime Minister, and while not all of them have been Brexit related it would have been difficult to remain in office had so much support dripped away under other circumstances.

Last week should have finished her off, with two cabinet resignations and a string of junior ministers quitting, while backbenchers stalked the airwaves calling for her head. But she survives. For now, at least. Against a backdrop of political turmoil, May is pushing ahead with her planned Brexit withdrawal process. Her resilience has been admired by friend and foe, with only her most intense critics likening it to obstinance.

This week she heads to Brussels in a bid to keep the Brexit show on the road. The EU remains keen to sign-off the deal at a summit this coming weekend, and their official position is that no changes or concessions will be offered ahead of a parliamentary vote in the UK. This adds an air of farce to proceedings. The two sides will meet to sign-off a document that they know is unlikely to survive contact with the House of Commons.

One area where May does have some room to manoeuvre is the political declaration on the future relationship that accompanies the draft withdrawal agreement. Her message to Brussels could be simple: “you saw what happened last week, you know what's going on in Westminster, if you don't give me something to help sell it then this deal will collapse.”

What could that something be? Opposition to the deal centres around the Irish border backstop, and the consequences for the UK's future relationship with the EU (and rest of the world) should it be triggered. Both sides should make it clear (much clearer than the withdrawal text does at present) that the backstop is to be avoided – that the objective and the imperative from the 30th March onwards will be to render such a mechanism obsolete.

Michel Barnier and his team can help May hammer this point, without losing any of their standing or changing their position. Of course, it then comes down to a question of trust, and how many of May's MPs could be reassured by such an effort.

Her premiership may live or die on this endeavour.