May needs the stars to align if her Brexit deal is to pass the Commons

Fourteen days from now, Parliament will vote on the government's Brexit deal.

The vote will be preceded by four days of formal debate but by the time MPs pass through the division lobbies of the House of Commons, they will have been arguing over this issue for two and a half years. Many have argued about it for a lot longer than that.

As a piece of parliamentary theatre it's set to be explosive, but beyond the drama of the occasion it will also represent the most consequential political moment of modern times.

As things stand, the numbers are not in the government's favour.

Theresa May lost her commons majority following her disastrous 2017 election, and has since imperilled her position further by alienating the DUP, on whose support she relied in a confidence and supply arrangement. From this poor start she also faces an opposition committed to voting against her and a Tory party riddled with dissent.

57 of her MPs have pledged to 'Stand up for Brexit' while a significant faction of Remain-supporting Tories will vote against the government. The SNP and other smaller parties are also set to vote against. When all is said and done, the government looks to be about 60 votes shy of a majority.

So why press on? Is this shaping up to be the most reckless charge since the Light Brigade? Perhaps. But Downing Street insiders find a flicker of hope in the fact that while they command no majority for their own plan, there's no majority for anyone else's, either. This might seem like little comfort, but when the nights are cold one clings to whatever scrap of blanket one can find. Speaking of which, Tory whips (whose job it is to secure victory for May) note that not all Tory MPs opposed to the deal have said they'll vote against it.

Iain Duncan Smith, for example, has said only that he won't support it. The distinction matters, as abstaining on the vote will count as support in the final tally. The other main hope is that Labour MPs abstain, allowing them to claim that while they didn't obstruct Brexit they didn't vote in support of the government, either.

But as May begins two frantic weeks of campaigning to bring these faint stars into alignment, the odds remain stacked against her.