Mayoral Elections 2024: Who is in the frame to run against Sadiq Khan?
London Conservatives are set to agree a candidate by the end of July to face off against Sadiq Khan in next year’s mayoral elections, it has emerged.
Tory chiefs met earlier this week and agreed to fast-track the process, as campaigning begins to ramp up ahead of the City Hall vote to be held in May 2024.
Rumours include former MP Justine Greening and – perennially – Tory peer, Apprentice judge and first lady of football, Baroness Karren Brady, while fellow TV personality Judge Rinder, and London Assembly member Emma Best have ruled themselves out of the race.
Splits in policy on expanding the ultra low emission zone (ULEZ) across the capital are expected to become a key battleline, while some warn the contest itself will be a tough fight.
Former No10 advisor Samuel Kasumu has pledged to deliver a referendum in the affected boroughs, whereas City Hall transport spokesman Nick Rogers says he will scrap it entirely.
Both Kasumu and Rogers have declared their intentions to run to be Conservative candidate, alongside fellow London Assembly member Andrew Boff.
Rogers told the Telegraph that: “Londoners, especially outer Londoners, are going to expect the Conservative mayoral candidate to have a strong view against ULEZ expansion.
“The mayoral election, if it was me as the candidate, would itself be a referendum on ULEZ expansion because my policy would be to reverse [it].”
‘Distinctive London voice’
Speaking to CityA.M., Boff said his party needs a “distinctive London voice” to make its mark.
“It’s got to be someone who articulates a particular London message,” he said. “If we can do that, we will beat Khan. By any measure, he’s been a dreadful failure.”
While minister for London, and Sutton and Cheam MP, Paul Scully has said he is “seriously considering” entering the race – and is widely thought of in Westminster as having the campaigning experience required.
“What ULEZ has done is really raised the issue of the failings of the mayor, in outer London especially, among those who hadn’t noticed he wasn’t doing much for them,” he told CityA.M.
“It is a big ask, certainly. If you look at the numbers, there are more Labour councillors and MPs in London than Conservative, which suggests we’ve got a real challenge on our hands.
“But at the end of the day… people need to be housed, people need to move around London and people need to feel safe. Londoners are lacking that leadership that they need.”
Not ‘popularity’ contest
But ex-Boris advisor Kasumu, a lifelong Londoner, Conservative councillor and party member since the age of 19, insists his comparative inexperience won’t hold him back.
“The tick in the box of experience is not a concern to me and as people get to know me, it won’t be a concern to them either,” he said.
“It’s not going to be a simplistic popularity contest – Sadiq Khan is not going to get more votes because people know his name.”
Having grown up in social housing in Barnet, with five siblings, it’s Kasumu’s belief that he – and his policy priorities – reflect the story of many across the capital.
“I could see wealth but I grew up in poverty,” he said. “I’m a Conservative but a Conservative that believes in the power of social housing as someone who has benefited from that.
Number one on his list will be housing, he says, with ambitions to reopen the London plan, make boroughs more accountable for house building, and better utilise City Hall-owned land.
All to play for on issues
Incumbent Sadiq Khan will be running for an unprecedented third term as mayor, after nailing down the Labour nomination in December.
Hackney councillor Zoe Garbett is running as the Green’s mayoral candidate, and also as a London Assembly candidate with hopes the party will secure a fourth London-wide member.
“We put a lot of focus into London-wide as it’s proportional representation,” AM Zack Polanski said.
“There’s a really reasonable chance – we were, I think, literally a percentage point from winning [a fourth] last time, so close. I think four looks like a really reasonable proposition.”
While third-party rivals the Liberal Democrats expect to have their candidate in place by the autumn.
Taking the long view, Lib Dem AM Caroline Pidgeon, who is standing down after 24 years, suggested a whole new battleground could emerge by the time the ballot rolls around.
There’s all to play for on the issues, she said: “Over the years, we’ve seen policing being the top issue; housing being the top issue. It’s always one big thing that becomes the focus.
“I don’t know that we know what that is this time yet.”