NHS waiting list could top 13 million, says IFS
IFS modelling has confirmed Sajid Javid’s stark warning that the number of people on the NHS waiting list could reach 13 million.
Last month the Health and Social Care Secretary quoted “shocking” government data which estimated waiting lists could more than double in a matter of months. Today, analysis published by the IFS reiterated that more than 13 million patients may be awaiting treatment by July 2022.
The waiting list reached a record 5.3 million in May 2021, up from 4.4 million in February 2020. However, modelling suggests that this figure falls well below the true number of patients in need of medical care.
A shortfall of 7.4 million ‘missing’ patients was identified when comparing data from 2020 and 2021 with pre-pandemic patient patterns. It is thought that during lockdown many patients who should have come forwards to seek medical attention did not.
Waiting lists will rise exponentially unless the NHS expands capacity beyond pre-pandemic levels. According to the report even if the NHS achieves its current target of returning capacity to 95% of pre-pandemic levels waiting lists will exceed 13 million if just two thirds of the missing patients come forward.
Max Warner, a Research Economist at IFS and an author of the analysis, said: “There is a real risk that if the NHS cannot find effective ways to boost its capacity – a challenge at the best of times, let alone after a major pandemic – then much longer waiting lists will be with us for years to come.”
As of March 2021 436,000 people had been on the NHS waiting list for over a year, a 200-fold increase compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Read more: CMA accuses pharma firms Pfizer and Flynn of charging NHS illegal prices for anti-epilepsy drug