Nigel Farage’s crypto punt is unlikely to end well
Nakamoto, a Bitcoin treasury company that promised a similar vision to Farage’s Stack BTC, is a cautionary tale for investors, says Tim Focas
Nigel Farage’s £275,000 stake in Stack BTC, a London listed Bitcoin treasury company chaired by Kwasi Kwarteng, certainly guarantees headlines, but unfortunately, it also attracts copycat investors. Through his ironically named Thorn In The Side investment vehicle, the MP for Clacton-on-Sea now owns 6.3 per cent of a firm built on acquiring cash generative businesses and using them to accumulate Bitcoin. If a company chaired by someone who was at the heart of the 2022 UK gilts budget meltdown wasn’t enough to put investors off, here is some more food for thought.
Take a butchers at Nakamoto, another Bitcoin treasury company that promised a similar vision. Less than a year ago, it commanded a market value of $24bn. Today, it sits closer to $180m. More than $23bn has been wiped out. If you had invested $1,000,000 at the peak, you would now have barely $6,000 left. Nakamoto’s strategy, like many Bitcoin treasury plays, relied on accumulating the asset and holding it as the core of the balance sheet. The flaw is brutally obvious because, who would have thought, an asset as unpredictable as Bitcoin does not move in a straight upward line.
When prices fall below the company’s average purchase cost, the entire structure begins to unravel faster than a Reform UK policy announcement. Nakamoto recently sold $20m worth of Bitcoin at $70,000, having bought it at around $118,000. That is an eyewatering 40 per cent realised loss. At the same time, its liabilities did not shrink. Costs, obligations and expectations remained fixed, all while the asset base deteriorated.
Equity investors get crushed
That is where equity investors get crushed. The stock has now traded below $1 for more than 30 consecutive days, triggering non-compliance with Nasdaq, the exchange where the firm is listed. If it cannot recover, and let’s face it there is more chance of Robert Jenrick defection back to the Tories, delisting is expected by 8 June 2026. Once that happens, liquidity dries up, institutional access disappears and raising fresh capital becomes harder than Farage’s stance on net migration. Basically, the exit door narrows just as investors most want to use it.
Now while the Stack BTC branding may well be different and the pitch might be more polished, the underlying exposure remains heavily tied to Bitcoin’s price. That creates an all too familiar tension. A volatile asset sitting against fixed liabilities. When markets rise, it looks like genius. However, when they fall, the losses compound quickly and brutally. Make no mistake, this is leverage on steroids dressed up as strategy.
There is also a deeper behavioural risk. Farage’s involvement will bring in investors who are not analysing balance sheets or cost bases. They are following a high profile political figure, which rarely ends well in markets. A listed company does not eliminate risk. In this case, it adds another layer. You are not just exposed to Bitcoin. You are exposed to management decisions, financing constraints, not to mention market structure risks for good measure.
The lesson from Nakamoto is surely clear enough. When a company’s fortunes hinge overwhelmingly on a single volatile asset, shareholders are not investing in a business. They are placing a directional bet with added complexity and reduced control. Farage’s bet may yet pay off if Bitcoin rallies hard from here. If it does not though, then the outcome is not hard to imagine. We have already seen it play out in full. The real issue is not whether Farage can afford to take that risk. It is whether everyone planning to vote for him can.
Tim Focas is head of capital markets at Aspectus Group