No Brexit is more likely than a no-deal Brexit, Theresa May warns on eve of parliament’s crunch vote
Prime Minister Theresa May is set to warn MPs today that no Brexit at all is the most likely outcome if parliament blocks her EU exit agreement tomorrow.
May is expected to urge lawmakers to back her deal in tomorrow’s crunch parliamentary vote in order to secure Brexit, saying a no-deal Brexit is less likely than the UK remaining in the EU.
Read more: Cabinet ministers say Brexit 'likely to be delayed'
“As we have seen over the last few weeks, there are some in Westminster who would wish to delay or even stop Brexit and who will use every device available to them to do so," May will say in a visit to factory workers today, according to reports.
"I ask MPs to consider the consequences of their actions on the faith of the British people in our democracy.
"People's faith in the democratic process and their politicians would suffer catastrophic harm. We all have a duty to implement the result of the referendum."
She will also make a speech at 3.30pm in the House of Commons, Downing Street sources have told the BBC and Sky News.
The news comes as the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicts that the government will be forced to extend Article 50 beyond 29 March, the date on which the UK is meant to leave the EU with or without a deal.
Last Friday Cabinet ministers told the Standard that Brexit was likely to be delayed owing to a backlog of bills that need to be passed.
Backing up what the Prime Minister is expected to tell MPs, the EIU predicts that a no-deal Brexit is the least likely outcome – at just five per cent.
But in a boost for May, the group believes she has a 40 per cent chance of getting her deal through parliament a month after she opted to postpone the vote in the face of a near-certain defeat.
Read more: MPs plot to wrestle Brexit away from Prime Minister
A second referendum has a 30 per cent likelihood, the group said.
May’s deal includes a commitment to avoid a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland by tying the UK into an EU customs union that it cannot quit until a trade deal is in place.
The EU may write a letter to reassure MPs today that this so-called Irish backstop would not be maintained indefinitely, according to RTE news.
Around 100 Tories, as well as the DUP’s 10 MPs, are expected to join Labour and other opposition parties in voting against May’s deal, the BBC reported.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has vowed to vote down May’s agreement, with plans to push for a general election if the deal is defeated.
“We will table a motion of no confidence in the government at a time of our choosing, but it's going to be soon, don't worry about it,” he told the Andrew Marr show yesterday.
International trade secretary Liam Fox today told Radio 4’s Today programme that the default position of the government will be to progress with a no-deal Brexit if May’s deal cannot muster the required votes.
Read more: Top Brexit donors say UK will no longer leave EU
“The government will want to leave with a deal but the government will want to prepare for no deal if it's impossible to get any agreement through the House of Commons. That would be the default policy," he said.
“I don't regard no deal as national suicide. No deal would damage our economy but I think it's survivable. I think no Brexit, politically, is a disaster from which we might not recover.”