Northampton Saints are defensively woeful, but semi against Saracens will suit them
The only statistic that truly matters at the end of a domestic Premiership rugby season is a club’s position in the table. But a considerable number of other figures can tell us everything we need to know about how they got there. Northampton Saints are no strangers to the Premiership play-offs, with tomorrow’s semi-final against Saracens their 11th appearance in the postseason.
But for the East Midlands club, who scraped into the top four in the penultimate weekend of the season, it has truly been a wide ride to play-offs.
There’s seemingly a philosophy of “you score X and we will score X+1” around the club. It must be liberating for players to go out onto the pitch and perform in such a free-flowing way.
Northampton defence shocking
But there’s no mistaking that their defence is absolutely shocking.
From their 20 matches this season, the club have conceded an average of 30.6 points per game – versus 31 in Saints’ favour – and 4.3 tries per match. The previous record for average tries against per match was 3.6.
The try statistic is truly incredible: the defence under Ian Vass have on average given away a try scoring bonus in every match. And while that may be offset by scoring an average 4.3 tries per match, it does show just how loose Northampton are.
Despite playing four fewer games than last year and two fewer than every other season where play-offs have existed in England’s top flight, Northampton have conceded 86 tries this year, the most in any season with play-offs.
Last season’s 82 tries conceded and 2017-18’s 80 are the only two seasons that come close.
That same season five years ago also played host to Northampton’s most points conceded in a campaign since play-offs were introduced with 645.
Saints, therefore, are shockingly bad at defending – borderline embarrassing – but they’re rescued with such a scintillating attacking structure, headed up by Sam Vesty.
Of the 11 teams in the Premiership, Northampton are ranked top for linebreaks, gainline success, average ruck speed, metres made, tries from broken play, tries from outside the red zone and entries into the red zone.
Score from anywhere
Their ability to score from anywhere on the park has been their saving grace this season, but against Saracens they’ll need to strengthen their defensive line.
Phil Dowson’s men can go toe-to-toe with Saracens in attack, but the north Londoners are ruthless in defence and tomorrow’s visitors will need to match that intensity.
This match has become a little bit of a grudge match over the last couple of decades, fuelled by Chris Ashton’s departure from Franklin’s Gardens to what is now the StoneX Stadium.
Saints will be underdogs, despite what the attacking statistics say, and that’s the way they’ll like it.
When you watch them in broken play, when nothing is on, that’s when they’re at their magical best – expect them to make the most of those opportunities should they present themselves in Barnet tomorrow afternoon. Saracens have conceded 18 tries from broken play this season, the most of anyone in the league.
Saracens are regimented, ruthless in fact, and are second to Saints in metres made and clean breaks. They’ve revolutionised their brand from one of doing the basics right and edging matches to one which can play flowing rugby when necessary.
They, too, carry with them the hurt from last year’s final where they were beaten by a last minute Freddie Burns drop goal – Northampton were knocked out in the semi-finals by eventual champions Leicester.
One that counts
Saracens have hosted seven Premiership semi-finals, winning six and losing one. Northampton have played seven away semi-finals, winning one and losing six.
Saracens’ only loss came to who? Northampton Saints in 2013.
The two sides have faced off twice at Franklin’s Gardens in the final four, Saracens winning both.
The reason the only statistic that matters at this point in the season is the finishing position is because the rest is a complete lottery.
These two sides play exceptionally well, and tomorrow’s game should be no different