Nvidia and Bitcoin dodge Trump’s tech tariff effects
Two of the world’s most-watched assets – Nvidia and Bitcoin – have surged to fresh highs this week, defying growing uncertainty around president Trump’s latest wave of tariff threats aimed squarely at the tech industry.
Nvidia on Wednesday became the world’s first company to hit a $4tr (£2.9tr) valuation, cementing its role as the bellwether of the artificial intelligence boom.
At the same time, Bitcoin climbed above $112,000, reaching a new all-time high for the year as demand for digital assets rebounded.
The moves come despite, or perhaps because of, renewed geopolitical headwinds. On Monday, Trump signed an executive order delaying his so-called ‘reciprocal tariffs’ until 1 August, giving major trading partners like Japan and South Korea less than a month to renegotiate terms or face new import levies of up to 25 per cent.
While the tech industry avoided an immediate hit, the reprieve is temporary and has done little to resolve the wider uncertainty now weighing on corporate decision-making and global supply chains.
Big Tech in limbo as policy shifts unsettle investors
“The problem isn’t just the tariffs – it’s the not knowing,” said Bob O’Donnell, president of TECHnalysis Research. “Firms can’t plan around this kind of unpredictability, especially when the numbers being thrown around are so big.”
Some of the most exposed names include Apple, Samsung and Dell, all of which rely on manufacturing hubs in countries now under threat of new tariffs.
Meanwhile, US semiconductor firms are bracing for possible levies tied to an ongoing Commerce Department investigation into chip imports, a move that could raise prices and hit consumer demand.
Despite that backdrop, Nvidia continues to outperform. The chipmaker now accounts for more than 7 per cent of the S&P 500’s performance this year, and nearly a quarter of the Nasdaq 100’s total gains.
Analysts say that kind of market concentration is becoming impossible to ignore.
“In the S&P 500, Nvidia alone has driven 142 basis points of the total return this year,””said Gabriel Debach, market analyst at eToro. “It’s no longer just a tech story, Nvidia is shaping the direction of entire indices.”
Bitcoin’s rally has also surprised some market watchers. After dipping below $100,000 in June, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has added more than 20 per cent year-to-date.
Some analysts believe growing institutional interest and ongoing speculation about potential government adoption – including a mooted U.S. strategic reserve – are helping fuel the rally.
According to Coinglass, nearly $340m in short positions were liquidated around the time of Bitcoin’s latest move higher, suggesting traders were caught off guard.
Investors remain cautious despite momentum
Still, not everyone is convinced the current momentum is sustainable.
“Investors have largely brushed aside the latest tariff noise, but there’s a risk they’re underpricing the longer-term impact”, said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
“We haven’t yet seen these levies feed through into corporate earnings, and that’s going to be the real test.”
He added that while Nvidia remains attractive – trading at 32 times forward earnings despite extraordinary growth – any sign of margin pressure or slowing demand could shift sentiment quickly.
For now, both Nvidia and Bitcoin remain insulated from the worst of the tariff fallout. But as Trump’s trade policy hangs over the sector and the 1 August deadline looms, the tech rally may soon face its toughest test yet.