The devastating prognosis for the UK’s public finances Economic News/Analysis While much of the media obsesses over Nigel Farage’s fight with a man dressed as a bin, I have something more sobering to discuss as we kick off the weekend. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s report into fiscal risks and sustainability, published this week, is comfortably the most alarming yet. This is an annual review [...]
IMF: Middle East war risks sparking government debt doom loop Markets Ballooning levels of government debt have left the global economy dangerously exposed to the aftereffects of the Middle East war, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which warned a fresh wave of inflation could trigger a historic bond crisis. In its latest Financial Stability Report, the financial body said that countries’ inability to rein [...]
Gloomy Brits’ sluggish spending set to drag on economic growth Economics Brits continued to tighten their pockets in January as economists warned sluggish spend from consumers could trigger a “sustained drag on economic growth“. S&P Global’s latest Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) showed a reading of 44.8, indicating further deterioration across household confidence with the figure remaining below the 50.0 mark that indicates neutrality. Whilst it crept [...]
UK second most at risk from debt crisis of all major economies September 29, 2025 The UK is the second most likely major economy to face a debt crisis in the next two years, a fresh survey of financial professionals has found, as investors remain unconvinced by the country’s growth prospects and efforts to keep a lid on spending. According to a Deutsche Bank poll released on Monday, France is [...]
How are ‘bankrupt’ France’s borrowing costs still lower than ours? September 29, 2025 Locked in a protracted political crisis over the extent of its indebtedness – and with its deficit running at over five per cent of GDP – France has earned itself the unwanted monikers of ‘the sick man of Europe’ and the ‘new Greece’. Despite these woes, its borrowing costs remain lower than the UK’s. Ali [...]
‘Inflation fears’ and trade turmoil to reinforce sterling rally August 28, 2025 A fresh bout of inflation and Donald Trump’s capricious approach to trade policy should extend the pound’s rally well into next year, according to a top investment bank which has raised its 12-month forecast for sterling against the dollar. Panmure Liberum’s Simon French said the recent string of hotter-than-expected inflation readings in the UK was [...]
Ray Dalio: UK is in a ‘debt doom loop’ July 28, 2025 The UK is in a “debt doom loop” of high taxes, low growth and a ballooning debt pile, according to one of the world’s most renowned investors, who also warned that the need to raise taxes will only drive more wealthy residents to leave. Ray Dalio, the billionaire who founded US hedge fund giant Bridgewater [...]