The Franco-German push for EU integration may backfire January 24, 2019 Amid the turmoil of the Brexit process, it is perhaps understandable that British eyes have not been focused much on recent developments within the European Union. After all, nobody is particularly interested in changes in a club when their membership is about to lapse. But just as we are preparing to set the seal on our [...]
Despite apocalyptic Brexit warnings, the good news keeps on coming January 22, 2019 As the twists and turns of this long drawn-out Brexit drama continue, possibly the most surprising aspect of all is just how resilient the good news about UK business continues to be. I know this is tempting fate, I know many experts keep saying that the economic cycle suggests we should have had a recession [...]
Will this be a year for investors to fear? January 9, 2019 A new year always offers the chance of a reset, of evolved thoughts, ideas and insights. Even though many will be pleased to see the back of 2018, numerous investors are beginning this year with new concerns: an oncoming recession. This fear seems suddenly rampant among many of my colleagues in the industry. But these fears [...]
What’s in store for equities in 2019? January 7, 2019 | City Talk There does not appear to be a lot of cheer for markets as 2019 begins. Risk appetite is strained, and havens are bid with some soft data from China and a rare profits warning from Apple combining to spook equity investors. Volatility came back with a vengeance in 2018 as a turn in the US [...]
Forex 2019: Dollar rally to fade? January 7, 2019 | City Talk The course of 2018 saw a firming in the US dollar against just about every other currency. But the factors that contributed to this steady rise may be starting to diminish. The big question facing the FX markets this year is whether the dollar can continue to push higher or whether the softening in December [...]
Eurozone inflation falls to its lowest rate in eight months as business output crashes January 4, 2019 A fall in oil prices saw eurozone inflation crash to an eight-month low in December as business activity fell to a four-year low, it emerged today. Inflation for the 19-country area stood at 1.6 per cent in the last month of 2018, down from 1.9 per cent in November and the lowest recorded since April, [...]
Eurozone bank lending rate quickens despite growth concerns January 3, 2019 Bank lending to eurozone households and companies accelerated in November despite signs the bloc’s economy is slowing, the European Central Bank said. Corporate loans grew four per cent year-on-year in November, compared with 3.9 per cent the previous month and loans to households grew to 3.3 per cent from 3.2 per cent in October – [...]
Euro at 20: Time for ‘close and candid introspection’ rather than celebration January 1, 2019 The 20th anniversary of the euro should not be cause for celebration but for “close and candid” introspection. European Central Bank president Mario Draghi admitted he was a biased observer when proclaiming the euro had been a success ahead of its 20th birthday yesterday. But he stopped short of celebrating and said the anniversary was [...]
EU agree to create eurozone budget as France compromise on original plans December 15, 2018 The EU has decided to give the eurozone its own budget after calls for a single currency budget led by France this year. It was agreed at a summit on Friday that a ring-fenced eurozone budget would help reduce economic differences between member states and make the currency more competitive on a global scale, although the [...]
Euro falls as eurozone business growth hits four-year low after France protests and Brexit uncertainty December 14, 2018 Eurozone business growth plummeted to a four-year low in December, according to a closely-followed measure of economic activity, hitting the euro as markets reacted today. The “yellow vest” protests in France and ongoing weak car demand exacerbated a widespread economic slowdown, IHS Markit’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) showed this morning. The index’s eurozone composite PMI showed [...]