Starmer refuses to rule out tax rises – and criticises forecasters August 6, 2025 The Prime Minister has refused to comment on whether he will break Labour’s manifesto pledges on taxes at this year’s Autumn Budget as he slapped down independent forecasters’ claims the government faced a £50bn black hole. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claimed Rachel Reeves would miss her borrowing target by £41.2bn [...]
The Bank of England’s trouble-free decision to cut interest rates August 6, 2025 The Bank of England has long suffered from the accusation of groupthink. Reforms have been mooted – and some have been implemented – but it has struggled to shake off the charge. Economists at the Cato Institute and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) have, for example, pointed the blame at Threadneedle [...]
Rachel Reeves needs £50bn tax raid to stick to fiscal rules, economists warn August 6, 2025 The Treasury will need to raise more than £50bn in fresh taxes to stay within its fiscal rules, one of the UK’s most prestigious economic groups has warned, laying bare the scale of the pain that could be wrought on businesses by Rachel Reeves in the autumn. The government is set to miss its “stability [...]
Reeves may need larger fiscal buffer to ‘build credibility’ June 27, 2025 Chancellor Rachel Reeves may need to make her headroom larger than £9.9bn in the autumn to restore credibility and fund policy U-turns, an economics think tank has warned, prompting warnings that “unpopular tax hikes” are coming down the line. Proposed welfare reforms saved the government £4.8bn at the Spring Statement in a last minute rush [...]
Inflation ‘plateau’ could keep interest rates higher, Bank hawk warns June 24, 2025 Bank of England officials may avoid cutting interest rates as worries inflation will remain above three per cent over the coming months leave policymakers in an “uncomfortable place”, a Monetary Policy Committee member has warned. Speaking at an event hosted by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, external member Megan Greene said the [...]
Reeves’ risky borrowing policies prompt fresh tax hike fears May 20, 2025 Tax hike fears are gathering pace as rising borrowing costs are set to wipe out around half of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ small £9.9bn headroom, a leading economics consultancy has warned. Reeves made around £14bn in spending cuts at her Spring Statement two months ago but left herself with one of the slimmest fiscal buffers on [...]
Is this a sweet trade deal with the EU – or does it sound a bit fishy? May 19, 2025 Keir Starmer will be boasting about his latest catch in international diplomacy: a trade deal with the European Union, which the government hopes will boost the chances of landing higher growth. In an agreement that hands EU boats continued rights in British seas until 2038, slashing red tape on food checks and increasing cooperation on [...]
Trump’s tariffs could crush UK growth to zero April 2, 2025 US President Donald Trump’s tariffs could knock UK growth down to zero next year, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). The prospect of low or zero growth would deal a catastrophic blow to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ plans for further investment in public services as estimates by NIESR suggest that a [...]
Households will still feel the squeeze even if Budget boosts growth February 12, 2025 Poorer households will not see their living standards recover to pre-2022 levels for another two years despite an anticipated acceleration in economic growth, new forecasts suggest. The forecasts highlight the challenges in ensuring households across the country feel the benefit of any growth that the Labour government is able to stimulate. The National Institute for [...]
US likely to fall into recession under Trump, top economist warns December 9, 2024 The US is likely to fall into recession during Donald Trump’s second term if he makes good on his campaign promises, a leading economist has predicted. Paul Mortimer-Lee, a research fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), said growth in the world’s largest economy could slump if the president-elect follows through [...]