Bottoms up! March 20, 2019 | City Talk If an investor is specifically looking for reasons not to invest, he or she will always find them. Indeed, for one reason or another, it has been said that “now is the most difficult time to invest”, in perpetuity! At present, such reasons are in ample supply – geopolitical concerns, populism, punchy valuations, a lack [...]
How to ride the pound sterling rollercoaster through a no-deal Brexit February 26, 2019 With no signs of letting up, the cold winds of Brexit uncertainty blowing through parliament have been pretty chilling for the UK economy. With Theresa May revealing on Sunday that MPs might not vote on her new deal until 12 March, and rumours swirling that Brexit may be delayed until May or beyond, businesses are [...]
Why ‘Continual Learning’ is ready to disrupt investment February 19, 2019 | City Talk ‘The only source of knowledge is experience’ – this quote, attributed to Albert Einstein, could be used to frustrate ambitious young analysts. The lesson? Grey hair will prevail. There simply is no substitute for experience in the investment business. Correct? Well, perhaps not any more. A new technology might be about to give grey hair [...]
The ECB has been keeping zombie banks alive February 18, 2019 A decade after the outbreak of the global financial crisis, banks in the euro area have still not recovered. The Eurozone financial stock index is 65 per cent below the pre-crisis peak, whereas the US S&P financial index has come close to the pre-crisis level. The varying fates of financial institutions is due to the [...]
What does the year of the pig hold for stocks? History has some clues February 8, 2019 | City Talk Chinese stock markets are currently on holiday, with traders and consumers off celebrating the arrival of the Year of the Pig. But maybe equity markets across the world have something to celebrate, given the past performance of stocks during previous porcine-themed years. Statistically speaking, the Year of the Pig is a good one for stocks. [...]
The Eurozone is at risk of renewed crisis in 2019 – and this time it’s all about Italy January 29, 2019 After a dismal 2018, December brought further bad news for the Eurozone in the form of the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator. Despite hopes that last year would see an escape from the ongoing repercussions of the 2011-2013 euro crisis, confidence across sectors has taken a hit, with only retail trade remaining a bright spot. [...]
Forget Brexit – the British economy is running out of money January 17, 2019 The media circus around Brexit is currently the focus of virtually all economic commentary on the UK. This fixation is so all-consuming that we risk missing another real threat to the economy: the dramatic slowdown in the growth rate of broad money This refers to the total amount of money in the economy. There is [...]
Will this be a year for investors to fear? January 9, 2019 A new year always offers the chance of a reset, of evolved thoughts, ideas and insights. Even though many will be pleased to see the back of 2018, numerous investors are beginning this year with new concerns: an oncoming recession. This fear seems suddenly rampant among many of my colleagues in the industry. But these fears [...]
FTSE 100: These are the biggest winners and losers of 2018 January 2, 2019 THE UK market felt the impact of Brexit last year as politicians scrambled to reach a deal on Britain’s fast approaching departure from the European Union. With a vote on Theresa May’s heavily criticised deal not expected until mid-January, and as the government pumps billions into planning for a no-deal Brexit scenario, it seems unlikely [...]
We have paved the way for the next financial crisis December 6, 2018 Optimists believe that the last decade of roiling financial crisis and austerity is behind us, and that current fears of trade war, Brexit, populism, and market crashes are overblown. They hope for a global economy poised for many years of growth, increasing personal wealth and prosperity, and political stability. Sadly, hope is never a strategy. Realists, [...]