Put your Home on Lee and Fred
IF AT first you don’t succeed, try and try again.
Or, in the case of HOME BY THE LEE and today’s Stayers’ Hurdle (4.00pm), try and try and try and try again.
Yes, the 10-year-old his having a fourth crack at the feature race on St Patrick’s Thursday, but there’s reason to believe this is his best chance yet.
For whatever reason, the penny seems to have dropped late with this horse.
Last year in this race, he was caught flat footed and then stayed on strongly off a muddling pace.
In his two starts this season, he’s looked better than ever, dominating a Lismullen Hurdle in November and then taking another step forward to win the Grade One Savills Hurdle by six lengths.
He couldn’t lay a glove on them in the same race last season yet still went on to run a decent third at Cheltenham, so he has to be of major interest 12 months on, now in miles better form.
Joseph O’Brien’s horses are running well and he’s already on the board at Prestbury Park this week, so that’s another box ticked, while JJ Slevin has been pretty vocal in saying he’s now worked out the best way to ride him.
All in all, he looks a cracking bet at 6/1, while readers of this column and listeners of The Punter Podcast, will have hopefully taken some of the 8/1 available when tipped up for this race back in January.
Teahupoo is clearly the main danger. He is the king of the division and should be right in his prime as an eight-year-old, but 6/4 is a skinny price for a horse who’s set to face a rejuvenated rival on quicker underfoot conditions than 12 months ago.
Home By The Lee can make it fourth time lucky and is the best bet of the week.
Onto the Kim Muir (5.20pm), where MIDNIGHT OUR FRED looks to have an obvious chance at 9/1.
This Irish raider’s Cheltenham form reads 222, so it’s about time he got his head in front at the track.
On his latest visit in April last year, he and Harry Fry’s Hymac pulled well clear of the field to battle out the finish, with the selection narrowly coming off second best, and the form has been franked by the fifth and sixth-placed horses winning since.
He’s been lightly-campaign this season, with a win and a second from two starts, so this looks like it’s been the plan all year.
Jockey Noel McParlan is no stranger to Cheltenham Festival success either, having won this very race aboard Missed Approach for Warren Greatrex in 2018.
Johnnywho looks like being a well-backed favourite, and potentially a bookies’ nightmare at around the 5/1 mark.
He’ll be looking to follow in the footsteps of last year’s winner Inothewayurthinkin, Any Second Now (2019), Cause Of Causes (2016) and Sunnyhillboy (2012), who were all owned by JP McManus and well-backed to win this race.
That pattern won’t be missed though and he’ll go off shorter purely down to the reputation of connections in this race.
POINTERS
Home By The Lee e/w 8/1 4.00pm Cheltenham (already advised)
Midnight Our Fred e/w 5.20pm Cheltenham