Reform is gathering in Birmingham this week – with plenty to celebrate
Amidst widespread economic pessimism and the rising salience of immigration, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour government faces a collapse in public support as polls show Nigel Farage’s Reform UK surging to a commanding lead, writes Matthew Lesh
Last month, Keir Starmer’s family summer escape to Scotland was abruptly cut short by an urgent dash across the Atlantic for crisis talks on Ukraine. Now, as the not-quite-refreshed Prime Minister steps back into Westminster’s bear pit this week, the hazy warmth of summer will feel like a distant memory.
Today’s Morning Wire / Freshwater Strategy Poll provides little to no comfort to Number 10. Starmer’s personal approval has hit a new record low (-41 net approval, down four points since August). On the question of who would make the better Prime Minister, Starmer trails both Kemi Badenoch (37 per cent to 34 per cent) and more strikingly Nigel Farage, who holds a five-point lead (43 per cent to 38 per cent).
While optimism for the nation’s economic situation appeared to be improving in the spring, over the last few months things have once again taken a turn for the worse. A majority (56 per cent) expect the economy to worsen, up six points since July. When it comes to their household finances, growing numbers (45 per cent, up six points since July) believe they will be worse off in a year’s time.
Unemployment and job cuts are on the rise, there is a £40–50bn ‘fiscal gap’ and the economy is stuck in the slow lane. And there is also little hope that things are about to turn around. Three-quarters of voters (75 per cent, up three points since last month) are not confident in the government’s plan to achieve economic growth.
When asked about the forthcoming budget, the centrepiece political event of the autumn, voters are not pleased by what they are hearing. A majority (57 per cent) want tax cuts, even if it means less government spending on public services, including a majority of Labour supporters (51 per cent). However, voters expect the opposite: a majority of voters anticipate that every major tax will rise, including income tax, corporation tax, and VAT.
On the specifics, Labour risks fresh political headaches if it proceeds with the measures recently ‘kite-flown’ through government leaks in recent weeks. While increasing duties on alcohol (+23 net support) and extending national insurance to cover rental income (+18) receive support, introducing capital gains tax on the sale of primary residences (-20) and reducing the tax-free pension lump sum on retirement (-23) would be unpopular policy choices.
Looking at the overall picture, a majority expect to be worse off (59 per cent) as a result of the Chancellor’s budget this autumn, and the overwhelming majority (78 per cent) are concerned that further tax rises could damage the UK economy.
Social tensions
Over the summer, social tensions have been intensifying, particularly around the government’s use of hotels to accommodate asylum seekers. Now, for the first time in our polling, reducing immigration has overtaken cost of living as the most important priority for voters when asked to select their top three. It’s not the economy, stupid.
The grim economic climate, along with the rising salience of immigration, is putting Nigel Farage in pole position for the next election. On voting intentions, Reform UK remains ahead (33 per cent, steady since last month) while Labour (down two points to 20 per cent) and Tories (down one point to 17 per cent) have slipped.
While swings are never uniform, these numbers would give Reform a whopping 418 seats and a 186 majority, beyond what even Labour have today. In fact, with the opposition split, it would represent a bigger majority than Blair’s in 1997 or Thatcher’s in 1983. Labour would be reduced to an almost entirely London party with 83 seats, while the Tories would be left with an insignificant rump in just 23 constituencies.
The key question is whether Reform represents a temporary home for frustrated voters, parking their support and ready to move at short notice, or whether it will establish itself as a lasting political force
All of this will provide ample cause for celebration as Reform UK gathers in Birmingham this weekend for its annual party conference, buoyed by fresh momentum and a sense that the political winds are shifting in its favour. They have become the party of those who want radical change; ironically, that’s now more likely to be older rather than younger cohorts.
The key question is whether Reform represents a temporary home for frustrated voters, parking their support and ready to move at short notice, or whether it will establish itself as a lasting political force, sustaining momentum until the next general election, which may still be nearly four years away. For now, Labour will continue to govern, in office, but bereft of genuine public support.
Matthew Lesh is Country Manager at Freshwater Strategy