Reform UK lead slips as Labour jumps after Iran war criticism
Reform UK’s polling lead slipped in April as Sir Keir Starmer’s criticism of the war in Iran helped mount a slight comeback, fresh data has shown.
Reform UK remained top of the party rankings for voter intentions in new research by Morning Wire/Freshwater Strategy.
Nigel Farage’s party lost four points in April as around 26 per cent of voters said they would vote for Reform.
Sir Keir Starmer’s hardened stance on President Trump and approach to the war in Iran appears to have paid dividends a month before crucial local elections happening across the country.
Labour jumped by four points to 22 per cent, racing ahead of Zack Polanski’s Green Party on 15 per cent and Sir Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats on 13 per cent.
The Conservatives inched up by one point in April to 19 per cent in the Morning Wire/Freshwater Strategy poll of some 1,250 voters.
Starmer beats Farage
In head-to-head polling between political leaders, Kemi Badenoch beat both Starmer and Farage as preferred Prime Minister.
Starmer beat Farage by five points in a separate head-to-head question, the second consecutive month where the Prime Minister has defeated his biggest apparent threat to staying in Downing Street.
On approval ratings, however, Starmer was second bottom of all figures polled on -34, behind only Chancellor Rachel Reeves who was on -35.
However, his popularity jumped by a massive eight points on the month, closing the distance on Farage (-16) and other Labour officials such as energy secretary Ed Miliband (-27) and former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner (-25).
The most popular Westminster personalities in the poll was Ed Davey on minus three and Kemi Badenoch on minus four.
Richard Tice was on minus five but around two thirds of the electorate did not claim to know him or were unsure about the Reform UK deputy leader.
Labour’s opportunity
The promising results for Labour will now provide some deep thinking for Downing Street strategists on whether Starmer can maintain his streak and the party can sway greater numbers of voters.
The UK economy is set to suffer delayed effects from trade disruption in the Middle East due to distance and because of regulated energy prices that remain unaffected by volatile oil markets until June.
Economists at the IMF and OECD have said the UK economy would face the largest hit to growth out any G7 nation and among the highest levels of inflation of any advanced economy.
Labour’s cost of living focus risks being upended by turbulence in the near future, with the ceasefire under threat due to a war between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and a breakdown in diplomacy between involved countries.
The upcoming local elections in London and major regions such as Scotland and Wales will give Labour a stronger sense of whether voters support the government over opposition parties.
Method note: Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,250 eligible voters in the UK, aged 18+ online, between 10 – 12 April 2026. Margin of Error +/- 2.8%. Data are weighted to be representative of UK voters. Freshwater Strategy are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.