Santorum’s surge will be tested by past sins
EXACTLY a year ago, Indiana governor Mitch Daniels called on Republicans running in 2012 to agree to a truce on social issues and focus instead on the economy. Daniels earned some criticism for this plea, but one voice in particular was vocal in its dissent.
For Rick Santorum, social and economic issues are one and the same. In remarks to an audience in Minnesota, Santorum stated the country “cannot have a strong economy unless the first economy is strong. The home is the first economy.” However, Santorum’s resounding victories in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri showed that the former Pennsylvania senator appears to be slowly attracting support beyond social conservatives. In a new Rasmussen poll, he now leads the Republican field. After his disastrous 2006 Senate re-election campaign, it’s a remarkable comeback.
After Santorum’s trifecta, Romney’s wafer-thin victories in the Maine caucus and the Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll helped avert talk of a campaign in crisis. Such talk will now be suspended until after the primaries in Michigan and Arizona on 28 February. In Arizona, Romney has picked up key endorsements from senator John McCain and representative Jeff Flake. Michigan, however, is different. Romney was born and raised in the state. His father was governor and oversaw the revival of American Motors in the late 1950s. It’s home turf. One poll has Santorum up by 15 points. Defeat in Michigan would be Romney’s gravest setback yet.
Unlike Newt Gingrich, Santorum appears much more genuine to voters and will be tougher for Romney to take down. In Florida, Gingrich was fair game because he was looking for a scrap. The same approach against Santorum may look like disproportionate force and backfire. However, Santorum is still in his honeymoon phase. Although polls show that he has excellent favourable ratings with Republicans, Santorum will soon come under heightened scrutiny for past sins against bedrock conservative principles. It won’t just be Romney highlighting Santorum’s past, but the media and, potentially, groups on the right. And there’s plenty to scrutinise.
Santorum has been described as a big government conservative, synonymous with the compassionate conservative era when Republicans lost credibility on fiscal issues. He voted for Medicare Part D, a $16 trillion (£10.2 trillion) prescription drug benefit former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker described as “the most fiscally irresponsible piece of legislation since the 1960s.” In the Senate, he had a penchant for earmarks and was tainted by his links with lobbyists. In his book he dismissed the notion of individualism, claiming that the “whole idea of personal autonomy” was anathema to “most conservatives”. Ronald Reagan once stated that the “basis of conservatism is a desire for less government interference.” With voters who uphold this tenet, Santorum may face problems.
In the coming days, Romney is likely to receive an endorsement from Michigan governor Rick Snyder. But Romney needs more than endorsements – he needs to fight and define his candidacy. Some argue that after each of Romney’s victories, he takes his foot off the pedal. Republicans are turning to Santorum because they want one candidate to vote for, rather than three candidates to vote against. This isn’t a threat, but another opportunity for Romney. But he has less than two weeks to make the sell.
Ewan Watt is a Washington DC-based consultant. You can follow him on @ewancwatt