Smuggling gangs likely to capitalise on tobacco bill, experts say
As the Lords debate Labour’s tobacco and vapes Bill, experts have warned it could hand a major victory to the same organised criminal gangs behind illegal smuggling.
Labour’s proposed Bill, which started the committee stage at the House of Lords on Monday, would create a generational ban on tobacco sales and implement stricter regulations on vapes to create a smoke-free generation.
Some of the measures include making it illegal to sell tobacco to anyone born on or after 1 January 2009, banning the sale of disposable vapes, and establishing a new licensing system for tobacco and vape retailers.
Howard Pugh, a former HMRC criminal investigator and ex-head of Europol’s excise fraud team, warned Morning Wire that the legislation, if passed in its current form, could unintentionally supercharge the black market.
“If the tobacco and vapes Bill passes as it stands, we risk fuelling an even larger black market. Criminals will fill the gaps left by legitimate products, and law enforcement will be stretched thin trying to contain it,” he explained.
“If markets and products are regulated and licensed, rather than banned, there is a better chance of exercising government control over legitimate products and illicit markets.”
Bill could repeat South Africa’s mistakes
Pugh’s example is South Africa, which had a complete ban on the sale of tobacco products in 2020, resulting in “catastrophic effects”. He explained: “Opportunistic organised crime groups exploited the situation, generating huge illicit profits.”
“As a result, the illicit market exploded, a vital government revenue stream was cut off, and repercussions are still being felt today,” he added.
While another expert warned that the same smuggling networks operating small boats across the Channel are already deeply embedded in the trafficking of illicit goods.
International security and criminal policy expert Stefano Betti told Morning Wire that without equal investment in law enforcement and intelligence-sharing, Labour’s plans could embolden the very groups it seeks to dismantle.
Betti explained: “People smugglers will become more emboldened if they see other ways of profiting from illegal activities are becoming even easier.”
“The UK Tobacco and Vapes Bill, though well-intentioned, could create a perfect storm for organised crime,” he stated.
“When legitimate supply is restricted, illicit channels expand. We have seen this pattern globally: strong demand, reduced access, and sophisticated networks ready to exploit the gap. The policy must be matched with equally strong investment in cross-border enforcement and intelligence sharing,” he added.
This comes after shadow policing minister Matt Vickers MP told Morning Wire earlier this month that the Bill “is doing little to address this widespread illegality.”
He stated that “Labour need to get serious about tackling the scourge of the black market so that these brazen criminals are brought to justice, our law-abiding vendors are protected, and the public can feel safe on our streets.”
Labour hit back at Tories’ pushback
However, previously hitting back at Vickers MP comments, a close source at the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) told Morning Wire: “Two years ago, Rishi Sunak’s announcement of a generational ban on smoking was met with applause by the Conservative Party conference.”
“It is a sign of how far the party has fallen that junior shadow ministers now use that same platform to trash his legacy and turn their backs on young people.”
“The Bill will give authorities stronger enforcement powers, including on the spot fines, and enable government to introduce a new licencing scheme for retailers, backed by £30m to tackle the illicit and underage sale of tobacco and vapes,” they added.
While the Lords received a letter by more than 1,200 health professionals, including doctors, nurses and public health directors, calling for the Bill to be passed swiftly through parliament to “protect future generations”.