Starmer is wrong to say he doesn’t have to choose between the US and China
Is Keir Starmer a geopolitical genius? As he jets off to China for the first visit by a UK Prime Minister since 2018, we must at least consider the possibility that he is. Ahead of his departure Starmer said “I’m often invited to simply choose between countries [but] I don’t do that.”
The countries in question are the US and China. The UK exports £200bn worth of goods and services to the former and a mere £30bn to the latter. Furthermore, one is our closest ally (despite the current occupant of the White House) while the other hacks, spies and steals its way around our economy. But for Starmer, there’s no need to choose between them.
Are we to believe that the man who recently said “There is no version of my life that does not largely revolve around me being a human rights lawyer” is now a ruthless pragmatist? That politics, history and security shrivel into irrelevance at the sight of a trade deal? I suppose that given he said economic growth would be his defining mission he can’t afford to be picky about where he goes looking for it, but he is taking a serious risk.
Firstly, there’s the threat of a Trump blowback. When Canada’s Mark Carney heralded a new trade deal with China (and a new world order) Trump threatened to impose 100 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods coming into the US, warning that China will “eat Canada alive.” Carney has since clarified that he was only looking to tidy up some trade issues and he isn’t after a full free trade agreement with the communists.
PM’s quest for growth could come at a cost
Starmer, meanwhile, is packing his plane with 60 CEOs as he sets his sights on restoring relations to somewhere between David Cameron’s misguided “golden age” and the more recent “ice age.” What he really wants is China’s help in achieving the UK’s ambitious (some would say reckless) net zero ambitions, and some short term support for UK car manufacturing. Both of these ambitions would come at a cost, or at least a considerable risk.
As Charles Parton, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, says: “If your energy is dependent on China then you are at their mercy.” Starmer says he doesn’t have to choose between countries but that position is itself a choice, and it’s one that may yet be tested to destruction.