Starmer’s future hinges on May election reckoning, polling expert says
The future of Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership hinges on the forthcoming May elections where the Labour party is expected to take a bruising, a polling expert has said.
Conservative peer Lord Robert Hayward said: “A few months ago it looked as if May 7 would be decisive for the leaderships of both Labour and Conservatives.
“As we move into 2026 it now looks as if the May elections could decide the fate of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, but it is less clear that that will be the case for Kemi Badenoch.”
Hayward expects Labour to endure steep losses across English local council elections, as well as defeats in the Welsh Senedd and a “battering” in the Scottish Parliament.
Starmer and his party has seen its polling drop to record lows in recent months, with the latest Morning Wire/Freshwater figures showing the Prime Minister’s approval rating dropping to a score of -47, trailing well behind Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and Reform UK’s Nigel Farage.
The figure was the lowest on record for the Prime Minister, representing a further drop from a previous historic low of -45 last month.
The rise of Reform UK as well as a recent surge from the Green Party as new leader Zak Polanski took the helm has led to Labour bleeding votes on both the left and the right.
Elections face controversial delay
A major hit in local elections is expected to raise questions about Starmer’s future and would follow intense speculation over the Prime Minister’s longevity in recent months after rogue Downing Street briefings against Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who is viewed as a top contender to replace the Prime Minister.
But there remains a question whether some elections will go ahead with a number of councils likely to defer polls to 2027 amidst the overhaul of local government infrastructure.
Rumours of the move has already triggered major backlash with Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey writing to the human rights watchdog calling for an investigation into what he referred to as the “government’s cavalier approach to our elections”.
Reform UK’s Zia Yusuf also told the BBC his party would try to stage a parliamentary vote as a means of protest against the “extremely dangerous” delays.
Elections in London and other metropolitan areas are expected to push ahead despite local government changes.
Lord Hayward warned these traditionally Labour-areas would be a crucial target for opposition with “very, very large losses” expected to the Greens and Reform UK as well as the Liberal Democrats and pro-Gaza independent candidates in London.