Study: UK coronavirus cases will decline in coming weeks
The UK’s coronavirus lockdown measures should “lead to a substantial impact and a decline in cases” in the coming weeks, a new study said.
The research by scientists from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) concluded that the coronavirus lockdown would help delay the spread of the virus but said there would be a lag before the impact of the measures was felt.
“This projected decline in incidence will not occur immediately as there are significant delays between infection, the onset of symptomatic disease and hospitalisation,” the study said.
They study was focused on whether strict social distancing measures would have an impact on the reproduction number of the virus – that is the average number of secondary cases generated per case.
A representative sample of UK adults were asked about their contact patterns on the previous day.
The first surveys were sent on 24 March, the day after the UK implemented the coronavirus lockdown.
The research found a 73 per cent reduction in the average daily number of contacts observed per participant.
The authors said this would be sufficient to reduce the reproduction number of the virus from 2.6 prior to lockdown to 0.62 after strict measures were put in place.