Sunak’s green U-turn has been a strategic mistake
The Prime Minister’s U-turn on green policies has failed to produce results – because voters aren’t anti net zero, writes Lucy Kenningham
The local elections were abysmal for the Conservatives, yes, but they also underscored another truth: the party’s U-turn on green policies has not served the party well. Whilst a small number of people are unhappy with specific policies, like the ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) and congestion charge, the evidence shows that the vast majority – even of Conservative voters – are not against policies that protect the environment. It has been a mistake to assume that they are.
The makings of a U-turn
The Tories were grappling for meaning after a trio of uninspiring byelection results in summer 2023. Keen to read into their one mini victory in the safe seat of Uxbridge, which they won only by the skin of their teeth, they extrapolated a national desire to undermine net zero ambitions from a small number of anti-Ulez car drivers in outer London. Soon Sunak found himself slamming “hare-brained” traffic schemes and vowing to “slam brakes on the war on motorists” (never mind that most motorists are not just drivers but pedestrians, cyclists and human beings too). This followed serious green policy rowbacks, the most significant being a controversial five-year delay on a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars, heavily criticised by business groups.
Detrimental to enterprise – but was it popular with voters, at least? Well…. No. Less than a year after Sunak’s first bout of pro-motorist mania, the local election results have painted a vivid picture of voters’ views on green U turns – and in short, they don’t like them one bit.
Local elections saw huge green gains across the country
The Conservatives’ undermining of net zero goals for political gain has proven misguided for three reasons, which all came to light at the local elections.
First, the Green Party made “spectacular gains” according to polling guru Sir John Curtice. The party gained 74 councillors in areas ranging from the South East all the way up to Newcastle. They even became the largest party on Bristol council. “These are record Green results for the fifth local elections in a row and, coming in a General Election year, set us on the way to achieving our ambition of winning at least four Green MPs in parliament,” co-leader Carla Denyer told Morning Wire It remains to be seen if that will transpire, but the share of the electorate who are compelled by green policies is clearly growing, fast.
Anti-Ulez sentiment proves phantasmic in London
Second, Sadiq Khan won in London on a campaign that championed green goals as one of his two key missions, from a new zero-emission bus fleet to ramping up electric vehicle charging points. Khan reiterated his commitment to climate policies: “my determination to ensure London leads from the front with world-leading green action remains as strong as ever”.
Conservative candidate Susan Hall’s anti-Ulez ticket failed to touch enough Londoners – which isn’t surprising, because Londoners actually largely support the ultra low emission zone, though you’d scarcely know it from the way it’s reported on. A Yougov poll found that twice as many Londoners supported an Ulez expansion as opposed it. Indeed, throughout the mayoral campaign support for Ulez actually increased. Which is not especially surprising: Londoners care about air quality, which Ulez is shown to improve. Analysis this month shows more toxic air pollution has been averted by the capital’s Ulez than is produced by London’s airports or its river and rail transport combined.
Duly, Londoners voted in Khan – even in most of the peripheral areas. Similarly, hysteria about low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) is rife in the media – yet an official report commissioned by Downing Street showed mass approval for them – and was thus buried by No 10 as it didn’t bolster their arguments against LTNs, which are often installed by Labour authorities.
Mayors who won backed green industry
Third, amongst the mayoral candidates across the country, those who backed green industry were successful. Ben Houchen, the only Conservative victor out of 13 mayoral elections, ran on a campaign which pledged strong support for green industry. Ten of the Labour mayors ran campaigns promoting green industrial policies. Andy Street, the former Tory West Midlands mayor, ran a campaign with a similar commitment. He only narrowly lost.
“The failure of the Conservatives in the local elections is intimately linked not just to public perception that Britain is broken, but frustration from the majority that the government has down-graded action on climate change, filled our rivers with sewage and neglected nature.”
Juliet Philips, E3G
The government’s current strategy isn’t just poor politics, it’s actually unlawful. Last week the High Court ruled the Conservatives’ new Net Zero Strategy inadequate and in breach of the Climate Change Act. There is a clear business case for investing in green industry – just look at the success of Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. For politicians who are all addicted to the word ‘growth’, the green economy would be a great place to start and could provide jobs, investment and bring greater efficiency to the nation.
Sunak made an error in listening to a disproportionately influential group of MPs such as climate sceptics Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Frost who urged him to delay the phasing out of gas boilers and diesel cars, which he did in October 2023.
Sunak has been listening to the wrong people. Instead of a fringe bunch of his MPs, he should have been listening to his voters who overwhelmingly back environmental action.
But Sunak was listening to the wrong people. Instead of a fringe bunch of his MPs, he should have been listening to his voters who overwhelmingly back environmental action. After all, they voted for Boris Johnson in 2019, who despite his flaws brought in major environmental legislation, an energy security act and a plan for reaching net zero. A recent poll of Tory voters found that 73 per cent back the net zero target – which is a higher proportion than among voters overall. Yougov’s shows they rank the environment as the fourth most important issue facing the UK. Nine in 10 support solar power and offshore wind. Two thirds say the ban on onshore wind in England should be overturned.
Tackling the climate crisis isn’t a left or right-wing issue – and the Conservatives are wrong to try to twist it into one. Labour has also to some extent cowed to the myth that a green U-turn is attractive to voters, by ditching their £28bn green prosperity plan. The way forward now is clear; whether the party is ready to backtrack on an immoral and misguided net zero rowback is yet to be seen.