Sweet on Sugar to cause huge upset in the Oaks
AIDAN O’Brien is the modern dominant force in the Oaks with 11 victories to his name since 1998.
The master of Ballydoyle relies on three fillies in this year’s renewal, with AMELIA EARHART his leading hope if jockey bookings and the betting is to be believed.
She arrives to Epsom off the back of a stellar victory at Chester where she convincingly took out the Listed Cheshire Oaks ahead of the well-regarded I’m The One.
She was well on top of her rivals, and looked to handle Chester’s tight turns, which should bode well for Epsom’s own undulating track layout.
SUGAR ISLAND was beaten by Amelia Earhart at Chester but ran with plenty of credit under a five-pound penalty from the front.
She made the running but probably didn’t make the most of her advantage, and I’m hoping that Ronan Whelan really makes the most of her ability on Friday.
Crucially, she, unlike many in the field, is guaranteed to be suited to the likely soft ground at Epsom.
She dominated a Group Three at the Curragh in October, where she had Thundering On and Cameo in behind, and I think she could make her more-fancied rivals sweat. With that in mind, she’s the Win and Place selection with World Pool at likely big odds.
CAMEO has probably improved a lot since that run at the Curragh, as shown by her romp in the Lingfield Oaks Trial last month.
However, she clearly also relished the fast ground that day, and to what extent she’ll operate on this rain-softened ground remains to be seen.
Venetian Lace has her stamina to prove, but arguably brings the best Group One form into the race having finished third in the Guineas and second in the Fillies’ Mile.
As regards her ability to stay the trip, she is by Derby winner Masar and out of a Dubawi mare who stayed 10 furlongs, so there’s hope there and she must be respected.
However, I’m keenest on playing the three Ballydoyle fillies.
Sugar Island is worth a go in the World Pool Win and Place markets, and I like the look of grouping the trio into a World Pool Trifecta, as I think they might just dominate proceedings like their colts did in the French Derby last weekend.
In the earlier Group Three Diomed Stakes (2.40pm), I think last year’s first and second, PERSICA and ICE MAX,can fight out the finish once again.
Persica ran down Ice Max to win by half-a-length 12 months ago, but with ground conditions likely to suit the Karl Burke-trained Ice Max better, I can see him reversing that form.
He was a winner of a Listed race on soft ground last season and should relish this test at a track we know he goes well at.
There could be value in playing him in the Win and Place markets with World Pool, and throw the Ryan Moore-ridden SKUKUZA, who could be ready to produce a big run, into a World Pool Quinella (predict the first two home) alongside last year’s front two.
POINTERS FRIDAY
Ice Max (Win and Place) 2.40pm Epsom
Ice Max, Persica, Skukuza (Quinella) 2.40pm Epsom
Sugar Island (Win and Place) 4.00pm Epsom
Sugar Island, Amelia Earhart, Cameo (Trifecta) 4.00pm Epsom