Thanksgiving week will hit stocks despite higher start
UK and European stock markets are set to make a move higher this morning, following on from a rebound in Dow stocks late in the day on Friday off their lows.
GFT is quoting the FTSE 100 index to open up 24 points from Friday’s close, at a level of 5,275.
The German DAX is also called higher, up 15 points at 5,678, and the French CAC is forecast to open up 17 points at 3,746.
Last week we saw a similarly strong start for the UK blue-chip index – indeed it reached new 2009 highs – only for the usual spectre of doubts over the economy to make an appearance and take the index lower on the week overall.
So although we project the market to open up this morning, traders will admittedly be wary of committing too much to the long side.
We also have the Thanksgiving holiday affecting US markets’ trading hours on Thursday and Friday, so we can expect volumes in general this week to be lower – but this lower liquidity can equally translate into higher volatility, so don’t write this off as a quiet week just yet.
Particularly as we have a long string of high-level economic data to keep traders active in the first-half of the week. Last week’s wider-than-expected US trade deficit has caused many to revise their forecasts for tomorrow’s third quarter preliminary GDP data down to around 3.0 per cent, compared to last month’s advance reading of 3.5 per cent.
Consumer confidence figures, also released today, are also expected to take a knock, so if anything the potential is for surprise to the up-side.
Germany also announces its preliminary GDP estimate.
On Wednesday there are over half a dozen key economic releases packed in ahead of the holiday, including durable goods, jobless claims and new home sales, let alone more GDP data, this time from the UK, and confidence data from Germany. Martin Slaney is the Director of Global Dealing Operations at GFT.