The BAFTAs 2023 – Who is going to win vs who SHOULD win
The BAFTAs are back with a bang this Sunday. After years of turmoil in the film industry, there’s a strong group of contenders led by sci-fi hit Everything Everywhere All At Once and The Banshees of Inisherin.
But who’s likely to take home the famous mask, and who should be getting their moment? Morning Wire film editor James Luxford goes through the nominees.
BEST FILM
WHO’S GOING TO WIN?
Everything Everywhere All At Once
I just can’t see past this extraordinary action-drama. It may come at the cost of individual acting categories (more on that later) but after coming away empty handed from The Golden Globes and last weekend’s London Film Critics Circle awards, I’m betting on their fortunes changing.
WHO SHOULD WIN?
The Banshees Of Inisherin
These two are interchangeable: it’s less ‘should’ and more ‘could also’. Martin McDonagh’s dark comedy is sublime, but I reckon Everything Everywhere… will just pip it to the post.
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
WHO’S GOING TO WIN?
BAFTA executives will be strategic and make sure doubly-nominated films like Banshees take home at least one prize. This will take the top British prize in the absence of a stronger foreign competitor (see last year, where Belfast took the homegrown award while Jane Campion’s The Power of The Dog went away with Best Film).
WHO SHOULD WIN?
Aftersun
Anyone who’s seen Charlotte Wells’ story of a father-daughter relationship has raved about it ever since. However, I’m not sure word-of-mouth will trump the Disney-backed buzz of Banshees.
OUTSTANDING DEBUT
WHO’S GOING TO WIN?
Aftersun – Charlotte Wells
While it may miss out on bigger awards, Charlotte Wells would be more than deserving of the Outstanding Debut gong, which would cement her status as a filmmaker to watch.
WHO SHOULD WIN?
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande – Katy Brand (writer)
Whether she should win over Wells is debatable, but I’m sad more hasn’t been made of comedian-turned-writer Brand’s excellent script, looking at sexuality from a viewpoint we don’t often see.
BEST FILM NOT IN ENGLISH
WHO’S GOING TO WIN?
All Quiet on the Western Front
I found the German war epic hard to watch, but there’s little denying the impact the Netflix production has had in delivering an uncompromising vision of the tragedy of war.
WHO SHOULD WIN?
Decision to Leave
As you may have guessed, this awards cycle is all about very different films competing for the same prize. As an award voter myself, I tend to lean toward work that offers something new. As great as All Quiet On The Western Front is, I’ve seen many great war movies, but few stories as complex and intriguing as the romantic mystery from Park Chan-wook (Oldboy, The Handmaiden).
BEST DOCUMENTARY
WHO’S GOING TO WIN?
All The Beauty and The Bloodshed
With a glut of awards from festivals around the world, the story of activist photographer Nan Goldin seems to have the momentum with it, and should do well on Sunday.
WHO SHOULD WIN?
Maybe it’s because the subject has been covered before, but I felt this film celebrating the life and love of French volcanologists Katia and Maurice Krafft has been a little overlooked.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
WHO’S GOING TO WIN?
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
The Oscar winner’s dark take on the puppet who dreams of being a real boy was far superior to the Tom Hanks Disney remake, and its positive critical reception may lead to a BAFTA as it heads to the Oscars in the hope of breaking up the Disney monopoly.
WHO SHOULD WIN?
In my view, this was a victim of Disney’s recent policy of dumping Pixar releases on streaming with little fanfare (see also: the excellent Luca). It’s a gorgeous film that would have had a better chance at an awards run with stronger promotion. A real shame, Turning Red deserves the boost that a BAFTA would bring.
BEST DIRECTOR
WHO’S GOING TO WIN?
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
I’m going with Kwan and Scheinert (known professionally as Daniels), both on merit and due to the fact that the other front runner already has a BAFTA on his mantle.
WHO SHOULD WIN?
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
I wouldn’t begrudge McDonagh winning his first directing BAFTA (his other four were for Best Film or his screenplays). The Three Billboards… maker has a film here that, on a quieter year, may have swept the board.
BEST ACTRESS
WHO’S GOING TO WIN?
Sometimes it’s just about momentum. Blanchett’s wonderful turn as a besieged conductor has won Golden Globe, Critics Choice and London Critics Circle Awards, and I wouldn’t bet against her adding a BAFTA.
WHO SHOULD WIN?
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
While predicting a shock is a contradiction in terms, I suspect the fact that Yeoh is expected to win the big awards may see voters go the other way. As much as I think the veteran star deserves it, those who saw Blanchett in Tar may want to support the film that was mostly overlooked in cinemas.
BEST ACTOR
WHO’S GOING TO WIN?
Who can say no to the comeback of the year? Fraser has fully embraced the public affection for his magnificent lead performance, which saved an otherwise flawed movie. Seeing him accept another accolade is something only the hardest hearts would deny. Good luck to him.
WHO SHOULD WIN?
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
There’ll be other times for the Irishman, who is in the form of his life and certainly deserves all the love for this performance.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
WHO’S GOING TO WIN?
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
One of the quieter awards hopefuls this year, I suspect she and her co-star might bump up Banshees’ award total in the absence of the major awards. It takes a fine performance to hold its own against this cast.
WHO SHOULD WIN?
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Oscar nominee took the spotlight beautifully in an otherwise stodgy Marvel blockbuster, and should be considered a close contender. Awards bias against big budget movies may be a factor, however, that sees her Golden Globe win go unaccompanied.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
WHO’S GOING TO WIN?
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once
I suspect the former child star will succeed where co-star Michelle Yeoh falls short. He’s the heart of this action-packed story, and won a lot of admirers thanks to his humble interviews and touching acceptance speeches.
WHO SHOULD WIN?
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees Of Inisherin
Sometimes a performance is overlooked because you’ve come to accept a level of brilliance from an actor. Gleeson is incredible as a man going through an existential crisis, but given that he is always a top performer, he might just lose out this time around.
• The BAFTAs are on Sunday and will be shown on BBC1 from 7pm