The Notebook: Rishi’s fixation on the grey vote could cost the party its entire future
Where the City’s movers and shakers have their say. Today, James Chapman, director of Soho Communications, takes the Notebook pen
Rishi’s punt on the grey vote will prove a misstep
Polls are ten a penny in election campaigns, but one from YouGov the other day rocked me back on my heels. It found that among the under-50s, 59 per cent are planning to back Labour, with the Greens in second place on 12 per cent and the Tories languishing in equal third place with Reform, both on just eight per cent.
The Tories have always performed most strongly among older voters, but this dismal level of support among the under-50s suggests the threat to the party’s existence is now existential. It’s depressing, therefore, that since Rishi Sunak surprised Westminster by calling an election months earlier than planned, the Conservatives have concentrated on seeking to shore up their core pensioner vote.
It’s depressing, therefore, that since Rishi Sunak surprised Westminster by calling an election months earlier than planned, the Conservatives have concentrated on seeking to shore up their core pensioner vote.
Unsurprisingly, the pledge/threat to bring back a limited version of national service appeals much more to older people who wouldn’t have to do it than it does to the young. Likewise, the promise to increase the income tax threshold for pensioners is a blatant pitch for the grey vote. It is also fiscally irresponsible, when the existing triple lock on the state pension is barely affordable as it is.
The Tories may see it as common sense – or indeed their only option – to concentrate on this cohort, since those aged 60 and over are traditionally the most likely to vote and to vote for them. However, pollsters say the age at which voters are more likely to vote Conservative than not is increasing all the time, with one recent survey identifying the crossover point as 70.
Given this backdrop, the party’s disregard for voters under the age of 50 looks reckless. It is particularly odd when Sunak might have used his position as the country’s youngest prime minister since 1812 to seek to appeal to a younger audience.
Instead, it is Labour which is producing bold policies on housing, NHS dentistry and waiting lists and votes at 16 designed to appeal to the under-50s. With evidence that younger voters have turned overwhelmingly against Brexit, Labour has even flirted (extremely gently) with the idea of a closer relationship with the EU.
If the Tories keep failing to even try to engage with anyone who isn’t in or past their sixth decade, they shouldn’t be surprised if they not only lose the upcoming general election but struggle to win one ever again.
The surveillance state is stepping too far
The UK already has some pretty extreme limitations on protest for a liberal democracy, but Lord Walney’s review on so-called ‘political violence and disruption’ for the government suggests going further.
The former Labour and independent MP, nominated for a peerage by Boris Johnson, suggests extending covert surveillance powers for police to help them prevent disruption by protesters and a mechanism for businesses to sue protest organisers. Lord Walney insists that his proposals wouldn’t have affected, say, the Suffragettes or the Iraq War protests, but it’s hard to reconcile this with his conclusions. His report deserves to gather dust on a Whitehall shelf.
Too rich to be PM?
Is Rishi Sunak simply too rich to be effective in Number Ten? The personal fortune of the PM and his wife, Akshata Murty, has increased by £120m, according to the annual Sunday Times rich list. At a time when millions of Britons were struggling with the cost of living, Sunak and Murty’s wealth was estimated at £651m in the latest list, up from £529m in 2023.
A rather unusual funeral
In the Hampshire village of South Baddesley recently, an unusual funeral was held for an unknown man who died half a millennium ago. Thought to have been in his early 20s, and identified as a potential murder victim from the way his body had been buried, the 16th century man’s remains had become exposed on a nearby beach.
Fifty mourners turned out and local funeral directors provided free flowers and a handmade wooden casket. It struck me that the effort gone to for “the funeral and burial of the 16th-century man known only to God”, as the order of service put it, was somehow a mark of our civilisation.
Come on you Saints!
I have enjoyed watching my team Southampton’s spectacular return to top-flight football in recent weeks. Somehow promotion is all the sweeter having achieved it through the playoff finals. On any measure, Russell Martin has done an extraordinary job at St Mary’s. Despite the departure of standout players such as Ward-Prowse, Tella, Livramento and Salisu, he regrouped, encouraged a new possession-based style and delivered a 25-game unbeaten run. Now we have marched back to the Premier League. Come on you Saints!