The summer is over, now it’s back to Brexit
The board is set, the pieces are moving, to quote Gandalf from The Lord Of The Rings.
Next week, MPs return from the summer recess and both the Brexiter and Remain sides are rallying their troops for the autumn battle.
After a summer of insults and infighting, opponents of a no-deal Brexit (including Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the SNP, and some independents and Tory rebels), yesterday appeared to be solidifying around a plan.
Rather than arguing about who would be a caretaker Prime Minister were Boris Johnson to be toppled in a vote of no confidence, the new strategy is to focus on blocking no-deal by passing legislation.
This would require seizing control of the parliamentary agenda and passing a new law, perhaps to compel the Prime Minister to seek yet another Article 50 extension, as we saw in April. A confidence vote is being kept on the table as a back-up plan, should that fail.
The Brexiters in Downing Street, however, are prepared. Over the weekend, reports surfaced that the government was seeking legal advice on proroguing parliament almost as soon as it resumes, to prevent Remain MPs from enacting their plan.
While Number 10 denied this, Johnson and members of his top team have repeatedly refused to rule it out. The message they are preparing is that, if parliament is going to insist on blocking “the will of the people” (defined as leaving the EU on 31 October without a deal), the government will simply ignore parliament. In the background, meanwhile, Downing Street is ramping up preparations for a snap election.
And the Prime Minister’s office is working furiously to show that a deal remains a viable prospect. The encouraging noises that came out of the G7 over the weekend may have helped quell the fears of some critics in the Tory party that the Prime Minister is hurtling towards no-deal. Whether this is a serious endeavour or a ploy to keep Tory rebels on-side for the time being remains to be seen.
The plausibility of either the government proroguing parliament or MPs taking control remains unknown. Britain has not been through quite this kind of constitutional conflict before – with parliament and the government so at odds, both claiming democracy is on their side – and it is uncertain where power lies.
But with just 64 days to go until the deadline and all still to play for, one wonders whether MPs on all sides might consider skipping the traditional three-week recess for party conference season in order to get some work done instead.
Main image credit: Getty