THE TIPSTER
THE bullish tone of the Australian dollar against the greenback during September and October has waned and the dizzy heights of $1.0160-70 at the start of this month now seem a long way away. The Aussie dollar is likely to be influenced by risk sentiment and month-end flows, both of which should be negative over the next day or so. Expect to see keen sellers of any rallies to $0.9630-50 with an initial target to the downside at $0.9550. Traders should also watch Aussie dollar-Canadian dollar, which is near a support level at Ca$0.9780. Recent Loonie strength should continue and a break of Ca$0.9770 will be exaggerated by sellers looking for a move towards the 100-day moving average at Ca$0.9695. ETX Capital quotes a fixed two basis point spreads on both pairs with Aussie dollar-US dollar trading at $0.9612 and Aussie-Loonie at Ca$0.9812.
Dollar-yen did as predicted and broke through the resistance near ¥83.20 and hit the target of ¥84 on Friday. After breaking through the 100-day moving average at ¥84.08 on Monday, it found resistance at ¥84.40 and pulled back below it again to ¥83.85 yesterday. Japanese importers have buy orders lined up from ¥83.50 to ¥83.80, which should prop it up for another run through the 100-day moving average. Spread Co offers a spread of ¥83.84-¥83.87.
Turmoil in the Eurozone often results in a knock-on effect for sterling and sterling-dollar has been dropping since the beginning of the week after the euro was thrown into freefall. Although there isn’t much in the way of a support level, a psychological level may be at $1.5500. Cantor Index offers a spread of $1.5520-$1.5522
Anxiety over the future of the euro is also unsurprisingly driving a flight to quality. Euro-Swiss franc has been testing territory below SFr1.3000, which was last seen in early September. Critically, any further weakness from here could open up a move to fresh all-time lows around SFr1.2750. The current IG Index price is SFr1.2989-SFr1.2992.