THE TIPSTER
STERLING has been the whipping boy of the markets recently. Fears about a hung parliament and worries about the UK’s large fiscal deficit have weighed on the pound. It has fallen more than 4 per cent against the euro, but technical indicators are suggesting it could have fallen too far. Euro-sterling is close to the £0.9150 and £0.9200, both important resistance levels. This could be an opportunity to go short. Capital Spreads quotes £0.9084-£0.9086.
The Canadian dollar has performed strongly in recent weeks, particularly against the pound. The loonie has been boosted by expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Canada later this year and also a fairly robust economic performance in 2009. Sterling fell to a new low of CA$1.5274 yesterday, and there could be more weakness to come. The Bank of England is expected to reiterate its cautious outlook for the UK economy when the minutes from the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting are published today. Spreadex has a sterling-Canadian dollar spot spread of CA$1.5374–CA$1.5386.
The euro continues to tumble versus the Swiss franc. It is down nearly 10 per cent in the past 18 months, and fell below the last major support level of SFr1.4557 on Monday. Traders had been speculating that the Swiss central bank would intervene to reduce upward pressure on the franc when it reached SFr1.50 against the euro, but so far it hasn’t been willing to stem the tide of interest in its currency. The all-time closing low of SFr1.4420 is now only 100 pips away, and it seems like it will only be a matter of time before it gets there. Once it reaches the SFr1.4420 level, expect a swift move higher for the Swiss franc. Spread Co offers a spot rate on euro-Swiss franc of SFr1.4516-SFr1.4521.