There is a way back for the Conservatives
The Tories have been quiet of late, pushed to the margins of the post-summer political debate and either mocked or ignored by the other parties whose conferences have sucked up the airtime in recent weeks.
But this weekend they gather in Manchester and while the event won’t command the nation’s undivided attention it is a valuable opportunity for the beleaguered party to exercise some discipline and clarify its mission in front of activists, members and the media.
So, what should the Tory party do? Far be it from me to offer them advice, though I have written before that there is one obvious and essential area of our national debate that they could and should claim: economic credibility.
Just 14 months into office, this Labour government has fallen into the trap of all Labour governments in spending, borrowing and taxing. There is no indication that they will seek to moderate any of these three sins and so their “defining mission” – economic growth leading to a rise in living standards – will elude them.
Reform, which sometimes assaults the centre ground from the right and sometimes from the left, has no economic policy to speak of (yet) and so while the Tories can’t outflank them on the issue of immigration they certainly have a window of opportunity to steal a march on them economically and, presumably, present them as ‘not to be trusted’ or ‘not credible’ when they do start putting sums next to their policies.
Urgent and radical reform is needed
All of this amounts to sensible short-term tactics; a way to give the Tories some solid territory on which to regroup and build. But the fight is much bigger than that, and so is the opportunity.
I believe that a window of opportunity will exist at the time of the next election for a party to be rewarded for telling the truth, and for setting out a reform agenda that recognises the scale of the economic challenges we face.
It is far from certain that Reform will be able to do that beyond the issue of immigration, and therefore it is incumbent on Kemi Badenoch (or whoever leads the Tories into the next election) to present an agenda for radical, urgent and enduring reform on tax, welfare, public expenditure, governance and growth.
It will require a bold and intellectual process of diagnosis and prescription, and it will require a clear and coherent campaign. Can the Tories offer it? I honestly don’t know, but it’s a question that makes their party conference more interesting – and more important – than you might think.