Time for England’s wilting roses to blossom against Boks
When penning this column the niggling thought in my mind is that there’s no possible way that England beat the Springboks.
Steve Borthwick’s wilting roses are struggling across the board, and shipped a record points total against a southern hemisphere side at home under his tenure in last week’s loss to Australia.
But I thought similarly ahead of England’s Six Nations fixture against Ireland earlier this year, which they won 23-22 with an 81st-minute drop goal.
That day Henry Slade partnered Ollie Lawrence in the midfield, while George Ford and Marcus Smith each got game-time at fly-half.
Not too much has changed with the squad since but England do look a little off it, and Scotland showed last week that such lax intent, even for just a second, can have serious consequences.
When Scotland dominated for a spell or two South Africa looked uncomfortable, made errors and gave their opponents opportunities – which the hosts did not take.
What the Scots managed was to demonstrate how you can give yourself a shot at beating the world champions.
England need to learn
And what England need to do is to learn from that, adapt and ensure that they do not repeat the errors made by their northern neighbours.
That means backing the blitz defence if that is indeed the policy. It means backing your fly-half if he is having a stormer. And it means countering the famous South African bomb squad when they inevitably trot onto the Allianz Stadium turf.
Only if they do all of that will they have a chance. And if they do triumph then it’ll be up there with Ireland as Borthwick’s greatest win as an international coach.
What makes South Africa so strong is their resilience to in-game challenges. If they get a card they are usually pretty good at lasting the 10 minutes with minimal damage on the scoreboard and when they’re given an opportunity they pounce.
England have played the Springboks 14 times at Twickenham this century, winning eight and losing six. And across the last decade England have won three times to the Springboks’ two at the same arena.
Saturday’s visitors have a good record at Twickenham for an away ground – albeit that includes a number of games at the stadium without England involved.
Close battle
And of the last five matches between the two sides in south-west London, two of England’s three wins have been by one point – the other was 16 points – while South Africa have won by three points and, in their most recent Twickenham meeting, 14 points.
When England played Ireland earlier this year there was a sense of almost calm in the stadium; the rivalry is an epic one but no one expected Borthwick and his men to get remotely close, let alone win it.
This weekend will likely be the same: confident fans in green and gold with those donning the red rose looking slightly timid. Maybe that’s exactly what England need, a match with absolutely zero pressure.
South Africa knocked England out of the Rugby World Cup last year, again by a solitary point, but few expect it to be that close on Saturday. So, then, Borthwick can roll the dice and, if it pays off, lap up the rewards.
It is hard to put a case forward for the home team this weekend, but if they pull it off then chapeau to England and congratulations to Borthwick, because he’ll have clung onto his job for at least one more week.
Former England Sevens captain Ollie Phillips is the founder of Optimist Performance. Follow Ollie @OlliePhillips11