Trevor Steven: England are only my third favourites for Euro 2024
England may be the pre-tournament favourites for Euro 2024 but in my opinion it is France’s title to lose – and I’d put Portugal above Gareth Southgate’s team too.
With Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden enjoying excellent seasons, I can see why some people have concluded that England have the best side, man for man.
But now that we know Southgate’s final 26-man squad I can’t help feeling like there are too many players in the fold who are untried at this level.
I think the England manager has made a mistake in leaving out Jack Grealish, presumably based purely on his numbers from the last club campaign.
Eberechi Eze has probably been the man to benefit from his omission, but I believe that Grealish offers more at both ends of the pitch and we could miss him.
There are too many questions over the midfield just days before England’s opening match of Euro 2024, against Serbia in Gelsenkirchen on Sunday.
We are none the wiser over who will play next to Declan Rice, while it looks as though Foden is not going to be used where he is most effective: at No10.
But my biggest concern is England’s defence and in particular the left side, given that Harry Maguire is missing and Luke Shaw hasn’t played any football since February.
In Maguire’s absence we will see either the inexperienced Marc Guehi or the limited Lewis Dunk filling in at centre-back, while Kieran Trippier may have to play left-back until Shaw is ready.
The problem with this is that Trippier is never going to get forward on the outside because he is right-footed, and that makes England predictable and easier to defend against.
Some might think it’s a radical solution but I’d consider switching Bukayo Saka to left-back in order to provide that natural width.
Saka knows the position having broken into the Arsenal team there, while shifting him back would allow Southgate to use Cole Palmer or even Foden off the right flank.
Gareth has got plenty of permutations and there is so much potential in that front six but we have no idea if any of it is going to work.
One thing to remember is that the England team always changes as the tournament goes on due to form and fitness, so it may look quite different at the end.
My hunch is that England will get to the semi-finals but no further. That will probably spell the end for Southgate, who admits he may need to win Euro 2024 if he wants to stay in the job.
France have reached the final of three of the last four major tournaments under Didier Deschamps, which means they are very well rehearsed.
Deschamps knows what he is doing with that group and I expect Kylian Mbappe to be on fire now that he has got his move to Real Madrid.
Portugal appear to have gone slightly under the radar but I think they should be being taken far more seriously.
They have solidity and flair plus Cristiano Ronaldo, who has had another prolific season, and I’m a fan of their manager Roberto Martinez.
I don’t see anyone other than France, Portugal or England winning the tournament, but I’ll also be keeping an eye on the Netherlands and Germany.
I think the Netherlands are well organised and have lots of pace, especially Donyell Malen. I expect them to give anyone a tough test.
Hosts Germany are still a team in transition, having made the move to a more creative style of football in recent years.
It hasn’t always been a comfortable process but they have home advantage and, in Julian Nagelsmann, a visionary coach.
They have a tough opening match on Friday against a Scotland team who have some good players and nothing to lose.
Qualifying for the finals again was a huge step for Steve Clarke’s team. Scotland have lots of Premier League experience in their squad and won’t be overawed by the Germans.
Trevor Steven is a former England footballer who played at two World Cups and two European Championships. @TrevorSteven63.