Trump in the White House won’t stop the green investment tide
Even Trump won’t be able to reverse the wave of green investment unleashed by Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, writes Ted Christie-Miller
Last weekend, I met a young Democrat running for a safe seat in Congress. He told me a Democrat presidential win in 2024 is the only way we will hit the IPCC target of 1.5 degrees. I think he is wrong. Not even Trump – the most likely Republican candidate next year – can hold back this tide of green investment.
The Biden administration has done more for the climate industry than any other that came before him. The $1.3 trillion Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the $400bn Infrastructure Bill and a litany of other subsidy measures have provided the largest fiscal stimulus since the New Deal. It has supercharged private investment in technologies such as hydrogen, electric vehicles and carbon removal.
I have seen the impact of this first hand. My own relocation to New York from London has largely been driven by the momentum that came from the IRA. Since the legislation was passed, I have spoken to a dozen or so European companies that have decided to pick up sticks and move to the US to develop their technologies. Money talks.
Many people are concerned about what another Trump term means for climate investment. This is the man who called climate change a “hoax”, withdrew from the Paris Agreement and rolled back over 100 environmental regulations while in office.
Let’s be clear, a Trump victory would not be good for the climate. His last administration’s goal was to bury the issue of climate change; the very mention of it was removed from the national agenda. His government offered $1bn to keep one power plant and coal mine up and running – done for political gain to win votes in a swing state. If Trump returns to office, he will likely double down on this strategy.
That being said, I don’t think Trump has the ability to reverse the gains in green investment triggered by the Biden administration. Green investment means green jobs. In the first year since the Inflation Reduction Act passed, over 170,000 new jobs were created across the country, according to the independent organisation Climate Power.
Republican states will be the biggest beneficiaries of the net zero transition. Two-thirds of the clean energy projects announced since the IRA became law are planned in Republican congressional districts. Republicans control nine of the top 10 congressional districts with existing or planned renewable energy manufacturing plants.
For a man who told people they must “Buy American and Hire American”, it is hard to imagine him making moves away from doing both – even if it is “hoax” jobs such as renewable energy.
The politics also mean that repealing the legislation is difficult. To overturn the massive subsidies seen in the Inflation Reduction Act, Congress would need a supermajority – where two thirds of Congress vote against it – which is no easy task.
To add to this, Trump has a record of failure for overturning legislation he doesn’t like. This is what he said about the Affordable Care Act, “I don’t want to terminate Obamacare, I want to REPLACE IT with MUCH BETTER HEALTHCARE. Obamacare Sucks!!!”. And yet, in 2023, the Affordable Care Act is stronger than ever before.
In short, the tide of climate investment is just too good to turn back from. Even for the Republicans who don’t support the subsidies, or perhaps don’t believe in climate change (there are many), they will likely remain paralysed by their political realities.
Yes, a Republican victory is bad for the state of the planet. But, don’t despair: the Biden administration has left a stubborn legacy on climate which will be near impossible to unravel.