Trump’s first 100 days: From stock market carnage to electing Carney
Tuesday marks President Trump’s second first 100 days. On 29 April 2017, pundits looked back at the opening of the then 45th President’s term as a period that had shaken presidential norms and perhaps lowered the tone. In comparison, these first three months have been an earthquake.
Trump has shown himself willing to execute the most bombastic pledges from his 2024 campaign for the Oval Office. Images of the 6 January storming of the US Capitol did not resonate as much with the public as the economic malaise that has resulted from stubborn inflation, so Kamala Harris lost not only the electoral college but also the popular vote – the first such win for a Republican candidate since George W Bush in 2004.
As the incoming President undertook a more assured, better-oiled transition, it became clear that we would not be seeing the same compromise that underpinned much of the first Trump term. The administration would not be filled with old-school, ‘country club’ Republicans, but with devoted Trump loyalists.
He appointed political devotees, from Robert F Kennedy Jr to Pete Hegseth. Then-Senator Marco Rubio represented a more conventional pick for the US’s top diplomat, but his loyalty has been unwavering.
January
The inauguration of Trump and his VP JD Vance was the first swearing in to take place inside since Reagan’s second term kicked off in 1985, and Trump became the second president ever inaugurated for a second, non-consecutive term – after Grover Cleveland in 1893.
Trump declared that “America’s decline is over”, with a solemn Joe Biden and Kamala Harris sitting just behind him. In a symbol that he had – seemingly once and for all – won over the US business elite, he was flanked by Meta boss Mark Zuckerberg as well as Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and Apple’s Tim Cook.
According to the new President: “The golden age of America begins right now… we will be the envy of every nation.”
The speech was a classic case of “flood the zone”-style communications, from painting the stars and stripes on Mars and threatening to annex Canada (more on this later). So, Trump’s restated pledge to “tariff and tax foreign nations to enrich our citizens” did not yet stand out.
Within days, Trump issued executive orders to take an axe to government DEI and climate initiatives, declare a national emergency at the US’ southern border, and invoke a federal hiring freeze.
February
The Trump Administration kicks off what will become a global trade war with initial 25 per cent levies on Canada and Mexico. Tariffs on China followed shortly after, starting at 10 per cent – with Beijing retaliating with like-for-like tariffs just hours later.
Trump blamed the flow of fentanyl into the US for these initial sanctions, warning that they could be lifted in the weeks and months ahead.
Meanwhile, he suggested that the US could take over Gaza, to build the “Riviera of the Middle East”.
Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron both got opportunities to schmooze with the new US President later in the month. The meeting with Starmer was considered to be particularly successful, with Trump predicting that “a great trade deal” was on the cards.
He said of the UK PM: “He loves his country, and so do I”.
Diplomatic good vibes came crashing down on the 28 February, as a meeting with President Zelensky descended into fury, with Trump and Vance slamming the Ukrainian leader as “disrespectful”, and ejecting him from the Oval Office.
March
The month opened with an address to Congress, in which Trump warned that he was “just getting started” and doubled down on his tariffs plan. Blue-chip financial institutions were becoming worried, with Deutsche Bank cautioning that the dollar risks losing its safe haven status.
Claudia Sheinbaum, the Mexican President, warned that the levies would “disrupt an incredibly successful trading relationship”, while then-Canadian PM Justin Trudeau slammed the tariffs as a “very dumb thing to do”.
Trump just about swerved a government shutdown, before stepping back onto the diplomatic stage as he attempted to broker a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Zelensky accepted an initial deal, but Trump struggled to get Putin to hold up his end of the bargain.
In an echo of the vengeful rhetoric that punctuated much of his first term, Trump revoked security clearance from various political rivals – from Hillary Clinton, to Kamala Harris and GOP opponent Liz Cheney.
And in an extraordinary diplomatic gaffe, the Atlantic magazine editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg was added to a Signal group chat in which defence secretary Pete Hegseth openly discussed plans to bomb Houthi targets in Yemen, and Vance described European nations as “free-loading” and “pathetic”.
April
On 2 April, Trump gathered together the world’s press for the set-piece event of his presidency so far: ‘Liberation Day’.
The calculations done to underpin the lurid menu of differing global tariffs imposed on Trump’s now iconic sandwich board are not entirely clear, but the extent of the sanctions far outpaced expectations.
For all of Starmer’s charm offensive, Trump still hit the UK with the baseline 10 per cent tariff rate.
According to Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter: “Any idea that his confrontational and aggressive campaign rhetoric would be followed by a more measured approach when in office has been truly upended.”
“The veneer of US ‘exceptionalism’ has been thoroughly routed”.
The tariffs caused the most violent shock to global financial markets since the start of the Covid-19 lockdowns. By the end of the week, the FTSE 100 was down 4.9 per cent, with every single stock – apart from JD Sports – closing that week in the red.
The S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq underwent similar pummellings. And Tesla, whose boss Elon Musk has been one of the most public – and certainly the richest – of Trump’s supporters, suffered a 9 per cent drop.
Trump appeared surprised by the scale of the retaliation, particularly from China. Even as he put a 90-day pause on almost all global tariffs, levies on China reached 145 per cent.
If April was the first month in which Trump saw significant international resistance, this week’s Canadian election caps it off.
Mark Carney’s Liberal Party, languishing 20 points behind the Conservatives for months, harnessed an anti-Trump message to win a shock, historic fourth term.
Speaking to supporters following the election, the former Bank of England Governor argued Trump wanted to “break us, so that America can own us”, adding: “That will never, ever happen.”