UK coronavirus epidemic could lead to 7.9m people being hospitalised
Up to 7.9m people could be hospitalised as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, which is expected to last until next spring, a Public Health England (PHE) document has revealed.
According to media reports, the document is the first time that health authorities have acknowledged that the virus will continue to be a problem for the next 12 months.
Over that time, it is suggested, as many as 80 per cent of Brits could be infected, a percentage that government chief medical adviser Chris Whitty has previously called the worst-case scenario.
However, the briefing is clear that four in five of the population is expected to contract the illness over that time period.
It also demonstrates the unprecedented extra pressure that the outbreak will put on the already creaking public services, with an estimated 500,000 of the 5m people who work in essential services will be off at any one time during the outbreak.
Included in this figure are 1m NHS employees, as well as an additional 1.5m who work in social care.
Sign up to Morning Wire’s Midday Update newsletter, delivered to your inbox every lunchtime
The report was drawn up by PHE’s emergency preparedness and response team and has been approved by Dr Susan Hopkins, the lead official for the epidemic.
It also quashes hopes that warmer weather brought in by the coming summer months would kill the virus, which experts are now expecting to linger.
The number of cases is expected to surge in the next few months, with the virus’ peak expected at the end of May. The government’s strategy is to delay the peak for as long as possible to make sure that the NHS is best prepared to deal with its high tide.
Cases should then slow down in the summer as people spend more time outside rather than confined in small spaces.