What impact will the general election have on the UK housing market?
The UK’s housing market could be set for a strong summer despite the upcoming general election, as the market appears to be undeterred by the race to crown a new prime minister.
According to figures from the property portal Rightmove, 95 per cent of buyers said the upcoming election will not affect their moving plans.
The popular house website, which advertises homes available to rent or buy, analysed how year-on-year buyer demand changed around the 2015 and 2019 elections.
In the two months leading up to the May 2015 election, buyer demand increased by five per cent year-on-year in March, and by six per cent in April.
During the election month demand increased to nine per cent year-on-year, with the increase moving to 18 per cent in June, as the market benefitted from a post-election boost.
In 2019, buyer demand remained stable in the months before the election, increasing by one per cent year-on-year in October and four per cent in November.
During the election month in December, demand was up by 13 per cent year-on-year, followed by a 14 per cent increase in January 2020.
Tim Bannister, Rightmove’s property expert, said: “With the date now set for a summer general election, we anticipate that housing market activity will remain steady in the lead-up to the election based on previous patterns.
“Over the past four years, home-movers have faced numerous challenges, including a global pandemic, a shortage of housing supply, and rapidly changing prices. For many, 2024 is finally the year to make their move, and they’re determined to proceed with their plans to secure their next home.
He added: “Previous elections would indicate we may be set for a particularly strong summer once the election is over, especially if interest rates start to fall. However, every election is different, and it would depend on whether any significant housing policies are also introduced, so we’ll need to wait and see what happens to have a better view of activity for the rest of the year.”
This year, property prices have held up better than expected despite higher mortgage rates,
In six weeks, voters will be asked to choose between conservative leader Rishi Sunak and Labour’s Keir Stamer as the country’s head of state.
On Tuesday, leader Sir Keir Starmer told the Evening Standard he would build homes at speed in London if he becomes prime minister, in efforts to ease pressures on the capital’s housing market.
Edward Heaton, founder of buying agency Heaton and Partners added: “We’d expected a short selling season this year with most transactions agreed before the summer holidays followed by a dampened autumn market because of the anticipated election. This shotgun election means we now stand a chance of having a half decent Autumn market regardless of who is elected.
“It will be fascinating to see whether buyers are willing to commit to a purchase in the next couple of months, and I suspect some of those that could be rewarded with more favourable terms than they might otherwise have expected.”
He added: “For wealthy buyers, there is certainly nothing like the fear that we witnessed in the last election with the threat of a Corbyn government. I think the domestic audience is resigned to paying higher taxes probably regardless of the outcome of the election. We anticipate many international buyers will adopt a more cautious approach until the landscape becomes clearer.”